In recent years, some underwater owners have opted to rent their property to avoid the loss of equity and/or impact on credit of a short-sale. With prices rising, these “accidental landlords” are now in a better position to sell their rental properties. Although construction of new homes will make the biggest dent on easing the inventory crunch, the sale of these properties can help to bring additional properties to the market. Based on information presented in the July RCI survey, 21 percent of REALTORS® reporting working with an “accidental landlord” to sell their rental property.
[Source: July REALTORS® Confidence Index]
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses construction spending.
- Construction spending fell in June due to cuts in government building projects and from less new construction of commercial real estate buildings. Residential construction activity held on over the month and is now higher by 17.6 percent from one year ago.
- Residential construction has been making a steady comeback since 2009 when the home buyer tax credit began to revive the housing market. From the low point, the value of new home construction is up 43 percent. But due to the severe fall during the housing crash, the current construction activity is only about half the level of bubble construction activity. It is a good thing that the construction is recovering and far away from a bubble.
- Commercial real estate construction has not yet made any meaningful comeback. Low new construction combined with some rises in new leasing will mean falling vacancy rates over time. Rents will get steadily bumped up as a result.
- As part of sequestration on government spending, there are fewer government funded construction projects. This trend could continue for few more years.
- Because of less than robust recovery in new construction, there are still 2 million construction workers today compared to the peak boom year.
- Today’s New York Times discusses potential outlook for Detroit. Can it make a comeback after the bankruptcy? It will depend on many things. If there is a genuine sustained revival at some point then construction jobs will abound in Detroit. A case of Washington D.C. going from the ‘murder capital’ of the country in the 1990s to a thriving walkable city of today is a good example of a turnaround. Pittsburgh is another example as the city shed away from its steel industry to create jobs in other sectors. Even going back centuries to the classical times, Rome after the great fire destroyed much of the city and its square-shaped Greek style buildings, Roman citizens started anew by reconstructing buildings into a new Roman style with curves, including its venerated Coliseum. Let’s hope Detroit can make the right decisions to make a good comeback. A link to New York Times story is here for those interested: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/03/us/dreams-but-little-consensus-for-a-new-detroit.html?ref=us&_r=0
- Happy Labor Day to our members, who are long overdue for a break! According to the latest Member Profile, the median number of hours worked by a NAR member is 40 hours a week (meaning half work MORE than 40 hours a week), with managers and appraisers often working even longer hours—a median of 50 hours a week.
- 77 percent of our members say real estate is their only occupation, while 22 percent work a second job on top of being a REALTOR®.
- Additionally, many of our members have children at home, with the typical household being three people for those who are under 50 years old.
- I hope all our members enjoy the long weekend and try not work too hard!
- For more information on the Member Profile, visit this realtor.org landing page: http://www.realtor.org/topics/member-profile
- Among large metro markets, Salt Lake City has zoomed ahead in terms of job creation with a 4.2 percent gain from one year ago. Increasingly, more cities are now topping a three percent job growth rate as the economy continues to expand. The following markets can therefore expect continued rises in home sales and increases in commercial leasing activity.
- Among small towns, the following markets have a very fast five percent or better job growth rate.
- Utah’s economy is highlighted in this week’s The Economist. What the article sadly did not mention is that Governor Gary Herbert was a former president of the Utah Association of REALTORS®. Electing a person who understands the real world and the importance of real estate to the economy is paying off in Utah. RPAC (REALTOR Political Action Committee) is also making a difference in winning elections.
- The Economist notes that student performance at schools throughout the state is also well above average despite spending very little money for public schools. Several Utah REALTORS® have told me that they simply turn-off TV at home so their kids can study. Now that’s a cheap way to boost educational performance.
- Here’s a link to the article: http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21584381-where-taxes-are-low-jobs-are-plentiful-and-schools-are-starved-busy-bees
Demand for rental units appears to remain strong based on rental price trends according to information from the July REALTORS® Confidence Index. Approximately 54 percent of REALTORS® conducting rentals reported higher residential rents compared to 12 months ago. About 22 percent of REALTORS® reported conducting an apartment rental.
What Does This Mean for REALTORS®? Depending on the property there may be significant financial advantages to buying rather than renting—particularly in the long run. In addition, there are major social benefits associated with home ownership with major, favorable impacts on families: Social Benefits of Homeownership and Stable Housing.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses GDP.
- The economy continues to expand, albeit at a slow rate. The second quarter GDP – the value of everything America produced – increased 2.5 percent. That growth is sufficient to create 2 to 2.5 million net new jobs this year. More jobs are clearly good for the real estate market, particularly now to help mitigate the negative impact of rising mortgage rates.
- Ideally, several consecutive quarters of above 3 percent growth is needed to say that the economy is truly gearing up for better times ahead. It has been seven consecutive years of sub-par economic performance to date.
- Housing was a big contributor to the economy in the latest data. Residential construction expanded by a healthy 13 percent. Moreover, key consumer spending rose by 1.8 percent. Since wage growth has been minimal, the increased consumer activity is likely due to the rise in housing wealth. When people feel wealthier, they spend more. Let’s hope the policymakers do not screw up the recovery by making mortgages even more difficult to obtain or by chipping away at mortgage interest deduction, as is being discussed in Washington.
- Business spending activity remains subdued with only 2.9 percent gain. Generally, this component should be rising at a double-digit pace after a recession. Companies are evidently still very hesitant to spend even after having rebuilt up their cash flow situation. A sharp increase in business spending will lead to much better economic times ahead.
- GDP is the best measure of strength of a country and of future living standards. America today is the undisputed leader in the world. Countries that have been pro-America like Colombia, South Korea, and Czech Republic tend to do well economically over time. In countries that take anti-American stance like Venezuela, North Korea, and Belarus, people suffer economically. Being pro-America does not mean a love of everything America has done in the past. Rather being pro-America means the country’s belief in the rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness of all its citizens – the factors that make a country grow rich and what Martin Luther King rightly promoted. Simply, to paraphrase Winston Churchill’s remark about democracy being the worst form of government, we may say that America has been the worst possible country except for all others.
As the traditional summer vacation season wrapped up, it became easier to focus on the economic performance over the first half of the year. However, the task became an exercise in reading fortune cookies given the many changes in the economy, the markets, and the legislative environment.
The main measure of economic activity—gross domestic product—has been redefined and revised by the Bureau of Economic Analysis during the second quarter. It has been redefined to include business investments in intellectual property, such as research & development, software, and entertainment and original artistic work. GDP has also been revised, as it normally is at regular intervals.
The results point to an economy that nominally is much stronger than it was a quarter ago, by almost $2.0 trillion. At the same time, the revised annual rate of growth for first quarter GDP dropped from 2.7 to 1.2 percent. However, the estimate for the second quarter growth rate is 1.7 percent, indicating an accelerating economy. Of course, given the pace of acceleration, we should not expect any whiplash, as there is no hurry in the macro advance.
Sales of major properties (over $2M) advanced 24 percent on a yearly basis during the first half of this year, totaling $145.3 billion, based on Real Capital Analytics (RCA) data. Most property types registered double-digit growth rates, signaling strong investor interest in commercial assets. Based on National Association of REALTORS® data, sales of properties at the lower end of the price range (mostly below $2 million) increased 12 percent on a yearly basis.
Portfolio sales made up a significant part of transactions in the first half of the year, with Archstone’s sale of apartment properties accounting for over $14 billion of the total. Hotels were another major component of the top portfolio transactions. On the individual property side, the General Motors building in New York ranked at the top, selling for $1.3 billion, at $1,766 per square foot. Office properties made up the top three, with Sony Plaza and 425 Lexington Avenue, both in New York, coming in second and third place.
In line with growing demand for properties, prices rose 8 percent on a yearly basis, according to RCA’s Commercial Property Price Index. Prices rose the most for apartments (15%) and retail buildings (13%). The average apartment unit price reached $108.347. Retail spaces commanded $166 per square foot. Office buildings traded for an average of $212 per square foot, up 7 percent year-over-year. Industrial properties posted average prices of $63 per square foot, a 5 percent decline from a year ago. Cap rates inched up 17 basis points, to an average 7 percent nationally across all property types. For lower priced properties (below $2M), prices increased 2 percent year-over-year, based on survey data from the National Association of REALTORS®.
Investor interest in secondary and tertiary markets continued in the first half of the year. Markets like Jacksonville, Long Island, Philadelphia, Las Vegas posted triple-digit growth rates in sales volume. By the year’s midpoint, 31 markets exceeded the $1 billion mark. In terms of dollar volume, Manhattan, Los Angeles and DC’s Northern Virginia suburbs rank at the top of the list. However, Dallas and Houston move in the top five, surpassing Atlanta, Chicago and Boston.
Distressed properties accounted for $118 billion across all property types, with office making up $36.5 billion of the total. The workout rates have been steadily climbing, reaching 66 percent in the first half of the year. Apartments and hotels recorded the highest workout rates, at 68 percent and 67percent, respectively.
New commercial distress is on a downward trend, as asset values continue to rise. CMBS continues to hold the largest proportion of outstanding distress—45 percent. U.S. banks are the second largest holder of distressed properties, accounting for 25 percent.
Several markets stand out for their rates of distress workouts. Las Vegas retains the top spot in terms of total current outstanding distress—$11.4 billion. Its workout rate is 43 percent, a fairly low figure. Manhattan posted the second highest current outstanding distress volume, totaling $8.4 billion. However, its workout rate reached 77 percent in the first half of the year. Other markets with high distress workout rates were DC (82), San Francisco (87%), Pittsburgh (79%) and San Jose (76%).
For the full Commercial Real Estate Outlook report, visit http://www.realtor.org/reports/commercial-real-estate-outlook.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence.
- Case Shiller data showed that its measure of prices moved in the same manner that other price measures have moved recently—up sharply. Case Shiller data showed an increase of 12.1 percent over June 2012 for its 20-city index and 11.9 percent for the 10-city index. This was the 4th consecutive month of year-over-year gains in both indexes.
- With this release, Case Shiller also published quarterly national data based on a broader range of areas which showed a gain of 10.1 percent over the 2nd quarter of 2012.
- This data is in line with information released previously by NAR and others showing substantial gains in home prices (pictured above). NAR reported a 13.4 percent increase in the median price from June 2012 to June 2013, and CoreLogic reported an 11.9 percent gain while FHFA reported a 7.7 percent increase during the same period.
- NAR reports the median price of all homes that have sold while Case Shiller, CoreLogic, and FHFA report the results of a weighted repeat-sales index. Because home sales among higher priced properties have been growing more than among lower price tiers, the NAR median price has risen by more than the weighted repeat sales index—which computes price change based on repeat sales of the same property.
- Case Shiller data is based on a 3 month moving average, so reported June prices include information from repeat transactions closed in April, May, and June. For this reason, the changes in the NAR median price tend to lead Case Shiller. NAR data showed continued growth in July, so expect repeat prices to follow suit.
- By market in the 20 cities covered by Case Shiller, metros in the West lead the pack, a trend seen in other measures. Las Vegas posted the biggest year over year increase with a gain of 24.9 percent followed closely by San Francisco at 24.5 percent. The slowest growing metro in the last year according to Case Shiller was New York where home prices increased only 3.3 percent. Still, all 20 metros showed year-over-year gains, and 12 of these were double-digit gains.
- Separately, the Conference Board registered a slight increase in preliminary Consumer Confidence in August. The index is up to 81.5 from 81.0 in July. While the index for the present situation declined, the expectations index increased.
Affordability has a strong impact on homeownership. Not surprisingly, four of five states with the lowest homeownership rates in the US are characterized by markets with high prices. Washington, DC has the lowest homeownership rate at 45.3%. At the opposite end of the spectrum, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Maine have among the highest affordability and homeownership rates. The dispersion of state homeownership rates is a wide 22.4 percentage points around the US average of 65%, split symmetrically at 11.2 points on either side, with the exception of DC. More information about state homeownership rates is available in the Local Market Reports for the 2nd quarter of 2013.
Based on information from the July REALTORS® Confidence Index survey (PDF), cash sales were 29 percent of Residential Sales in July. Investors and International buyers are most likely to pay cash, while First-Time Buyers are most dependent on mortgages.
Other Market Characteristics
- First Time Buyers: 29 Percent of Residential Buyers.
- Residential Sales to Investors: 16 Percent of Residential Market.
- Second Home Buyers : 11 Percent of Residential Market.
- Relocation Buyers : 17 Percent of Residential Market.
- International Transactions: About 2.2 Percent of Residential Market.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses new home sales.
- New home sales fell sizably in July. The latest figure of 394,000 (annualized sales rate) is 13 percent below the prior month’s level, though still up from one year ago.
- New home sales measure contract signings and not closings. By contrast, existing home sales released earlier in the week, which had spiked upward to the highest level in 4 years, measures closings. The fact that contract signing is coming down on new home sales likely reflects higher mortgage rates. Another factor is the still very sluggish level of new home construction. Simple math of low new home construction means fewer new home sales. This is reflected in essentially 50-year low inventory levels, as even falling new home sales is not leading to any measurable gains in unsold inventory.
- Meanwhile, the median price of a new home rose by 8.3 percent from one year ago. Tight inventory and higher construction costs are pushing up prices. The gap between new home price and existing home price is still abnormally high. Therefore, there is still further room for existing home prices to catch up.
- The prospect for new home sales is still up, despite the latest month’s tumble. The reasoning is simple. There is a broad housing shortage. Only homebuilders can genuinely relieve the inventory conditions. Whatever builders are building are selling, despite again the one month hiccup. Therefore housing starts will rise over the next two years for sure. More new home construction, then naturally, more new home sales. The only bottleneck at the moment is the difficulty of obtaining construction loans.
REALTOR® confidence about the outlook for real estate markets over the next six months fell across the single-family, townhouse, and condominium markets in July. A confluence of factors tempered REALTOR® optimism: higher mortgage rates, rapid price gains amid a slow economic recovery, lack of inventory in many areas, and stringent credit conditions. REALTORS® ascribed the low volume of condominium sales to lack of FHA financing, with many condominiums not being FHA-approved. The Indexes for buyer and seller traffic also declined in July, additional indicators of market deceleration.
What Does This Mean for REALTORS®? The decline in REALTOR® confidence is probably temporary as the market adjusts to interest rates, a lack of inventory, and a leveling off of prices. The economy continues its slow but positive expansion along with the creation of additional jobs (a major driver of housing demand). Recent concerns about an over-heated housing recovery or, alternatively, a housing market slipping back into decline appear to be irrelevant based on available data.
- The strongest improvements in median sale prices over the four-quarter period ending in June of 2013 were dominated by markets from the Sun Belt and Atlanta. These markets experienced some of the largest price declines following the subprime bust and economic recessions which were followed with a subsequent spike in foreclosures.
- While investors in lower-priced properties in these markets led the early increases in home purchases and price growth in 2011, steady price appreciation in these markets has helped to attract additional investors and first-time homebuyers into the fray, spreading the price appreciation and stability to other portions of the market.
- Several of the markets that experienced price declines are in states with a judicial foreclosure which take additional time relative to non-judicial states and create uncertainty for lenders. This uncertainty has weighed on price recovery in judicial states.
- Additional information on price dynamics is available in the Local Market Reports for the 2nd quarter of 2013.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s second update discusses the latest numbers from the FHFA house price index.
- FHFA released monthly and quarterly home price data today covering prices through the second quarter and June. The purchase-only data, based solely on repeat prices from purchase transactions, showed a 2.1 percent rise in the second quarter from the first quarter, the eighth consecutive quarter of increasing prices.
- Monthly data showed that prices were up 0.7 percent from May to June, the 17th month of consecutive increase, and up 7.7 percent from June 2012 to June 2013. By comparison, NAR reported that the price of the median home sold increased 13.4 percent from June 2012 to June 2013 and showed that the gains continued in July. FHFA data from July will be available next month.
- In the quarterly release, FHFA has more localized data. This month’s release showed that from a year ago, price gain was the fasted in Nevada, California, Arizona, Oregon, and the District of Columbia. Four other states had double digit gains in home prices from one year ago. All states showed gains. Those states with the smallest price gains were Kentucky, New Jersey, Alaska, New York, and New Mexico.
- FHFA also publishes metro area data. For the year, Las Vegas and Stockton-Lodi, CA each had price gains of 26.6 percent as measured by the purchase-only index available for the 100 most populated MSAs. Only two of the 100 most populated MSAs saw slight declines in prices from one-year ago; Syracuse, NY and Columbia, SC each saw declines of less than 1 percent.
- For the year ending in June, the top twenty metro areas by home price appreciation out of the 401 covered as measured by purchases and refinance data were in 7 states: California, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, North Dakota, Florida, and Idaho. Stockton-Lodi, CA topped the list with a 19.4 percent gain in home prices from one year ago. Phoenix and Las Vegas rounded out the top three. While there were no price declines at the state level, some metro areas did see slight declines. The metro areas with the biggest decline in home prices in the last year was Norwich-New London, CT where prices slipped 3.36 percent. Gulfport, MS and Rockford, IL rounded out the bottom 3.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the latest leading economic indicators.
- The leading economic indicators are pointing to continued expansion in the economy. In July, the indicator index rose 0.6 percent and the pace of increases over recent months appears to be accelerating. This is good news for GDP growth and job growth prospects.
- Though there was a slight pullback in consumer sentiment and weekly average work hours, the rise in new durable goods orders, housing permits, and the stock market (in July) more than made up for the broad index to point to better economic times ahead. Moreover, the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates are widening, which generally has been a better economic outlook. These measurements are reasonably consistent with NAR’s projection of 2 million net new jobs this year and a slightly higher number next year. More jobs are needed for higher home sales in a rising interest rate environment.
- The leading economic indicators for China have been rising a bit faster, 1.4 percent in July. The Chinese economy will therefore likely move a bit faster than the U.S. economy.
- Though the leading indicators are good for a short-term outlook of 12 to 18 months, they are clueless about the longer-term forecast.
- China, for example, had been growing fast but will undoubtedly slow as copy-cat technological improvements dry out. Moreover, China faces a long-term problem that will be very hard to overcome. It is a culture of favoring sons over daughters. A highly distorted sex ratio at birth in the past decade will result in about 30 million more young men in their twenties than young women of the same age in a few years. Are social unrest and fighting on the horizon in China?
- The tragic story of Anne Boleyn is a good illustration of why you should not discount daughters. King Henry VIII fell madly in love with Anne while he was married to another woman. After a complicated separation of England from the Catholic Church, the King later lawfully married Anne. But when she couldn’t produce a male heir, the King had Anne on the chopping block (and subsequently re-married four more times). Anne, however, did leave behind one important legacy: her daughter Elizabeth. The Virgin Queen, as Elizabeth eventually found a way to the throne, set the conditions for Britain to rule the waves over the next 300 years and oversaw an empire where the sun never set. Never underestimate a daughter’s potential for greatness.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses mortgage rates and affordability.
- The average rate on 30-year mortgage looks to hit 4.7 percent very soon.
- The 10-year Treasury has inched higher this week ahead of tomorrow’s release of minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve Governors. Light August trading volume and a dearth of economic data this week have added to the uncertainty.
- Traders of Treasuries and mortgage backed securities are concerned about the timing of the Fed’s imminent winding down of its program to purchase these securities. Most bets are for September, while a few are for the beginning of 2014.
- The end of the Fed’s program would result in higher rates for home buyers. But how will it impact home purchases? The answer is it depends.
- The US has experienced periods of rising rates before without a decline in home sales volumes both in mid and late 1970s as well as in 1994 and 1999 through 2000. However, as rates spiked above 10% in the early 1980s, home sales fell to their lowest levels in nearly a decade. The good news is that rates are not likely to rise to 17%.
- Rising mortgage rates combined with higher home prices will erode affordability, which is at record lows. However, affordability is still strong and will remain so with modestly higher rates or prices and there are many homebuyers who have not been able to participate in the market in recent years due to tight lending conditions. Income growth does need to improve over the long-term though.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses state level employment.
- Job growth has been the fastest in Utah, Arizona, and Georgia in the past 12 months to July, all expanding at double the national growth rate. Utah has already recovered all the job losses that occurred during the recession and is charting new highs. Arizona and Georgia still have further to go before surpassing their peaks.
- Happy to see the very hard hit state of Michigan generating jobs, though it will not reach its prior peak anytime soon.
- The states in the upper Great Plains had very low unemployment rates. North Dakota in particular had the lowest unemployment rate in the country with only 3 percent of adults unable to find jobs. Many years of steady job growth are contributing to such a low jobless rate.
- The unemployment rate was the highest in Nevada and Illinois with more than 9 percent without jobs. Georgia still has a high unemployment rate of 8.8 percent, but at least the Peach State is quickly adding jobs which will lower the unemployment rate in the upcoming months. Nevada is adding some jobs. Illinois, unfortunately, was the only state with a high unemployment rate and very low job creation. Therefore, the high unemployment rate will stick around a while longer in Illinois.
- The Chicago area, comprising more than two-third of Illinois jobs, was one of the fastest growing cities at the turn of the last century. That is, around the year 1900, Chicago was the railroad center of the country and anyone with good business ideas happily moved to the city. The Great Migration from the Deep South was also occurring as jobs with good wages were plentiful. Many of the great buildings in Chicago are a testament to those fast growing times. Today, Chicago is no longer the Second City despite having a great comedy theater by that name (LA took that spot). Chicago could easily drop to fourth, behind Dallas-Ft. Worth by the next decade if job growth does not meaningfully pick up.
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses housing starts.
- New home construction rose in July to 896,000 (annualized pace), up 6 percent over the month and showing a decent gain of 21 percent from a year ago. The monthly gain was in multifamily and not in single-family new units, though both property types are up from one year ago.
- Even with the increase, housing starts are still well below the long-term average of 1.5 million new units each year. In other words, do not expect any notable relief to the housing inventory shortage any time soon. Another good 50 percent increase in new home construction is needed to help relieve the inventory shortage conditions.
- The inventory of newly constructed homes is essentially at a 50-year low. Months’ supply – how many months it would take to exhaust the inventory at the current sales pace – is also bumping into low figures. Whatever the builders are constructing is getting sold. Yet, more building activity is not taking place.
- Because of excessive government regulation arising from the Dodd-Frank financial regulatory law and the uncertainty related to international capital rules (Basel III), construction loans have been very difficult to come by. Many small-time local home builders, therefore, have all but thrown in the towel. But the big builders who can tap Wall Street funds like Toll Brothers and Lennar are smiling. Less competition from small home builders will no doubt lead to an environment of more tacit collusion among large builders. A case of the revenge of economic laws on American consumers because of excessive government regulation?
- From consumers’ perspective, inventory will continue to remain tight in most of the country. Multiple bidding is not going away in those markets with acute shortages, even with rising mortgage rates.
- At least new homes are built for durability in the U.S., providing the basis for wealth building for U.S. homeowners and their inheritors. In Japan, homes typically get demolished after 30 or 40 years with zero value at the end, other than the land value. Part of the reason is a culture of wanting to experience renewal. But it could also be due to the very high inheritance tax in Japan. Why leave something behind if the government is essentially going take a big chunk of your asset?
In each Economic Update, the Research staff analyzes recently released economic indicators and addresses what these indicators mean for REALTORS® and their clients. Today’s update discusses the consumer price index (CPI).
- Consumer prices are on the rise, though slowly. The latest consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.0 percent from one year ago (very manageable inflation and nothing to worry about). It also means that social security checks will get bumped up by roughly 2 percent next year. For those working, wages are a hair below inflation, with the wage rate rising 1.9 percent from one year ago. Though only a bare difference, it is a psychological blow to workers in not getting ahead of inflation.
- Rents rose by 2.8 percent, a continuing slow squeeze on renters to empty their wallets. Meanwhile the fuzzy figure of owner-equivalent rent (the hypothetical of what the homeowners would pay in rent if they were renting out their home) rose by 2.2 percent. Falling vacancy rates and fewer inventories of homes for sale assure that the housing component of inflation will tick higher in upcoming months. Home prices have been rising at a double-digit rate of appreciation but are not included in the CPI for the same reason that stock prices are not included as they are considered investment assets.
- Quite a measurable decline in medical service fees has been one key reason for the broader tame inflation figures. The latest increase was 2.6 percent compared to 4 to 6 percent annual gains in the past decade. Should the medical fees somehow revert back to higher inflation on top of rising housing rent costs, then inflation will get uncomfortable and will force the Federal Reserve to quickly raise interest rates. So far, inflation is not a concern, but it bears close monitoring.
- One huge negative consequence of rising inflation for the housing market, if or when it occurs, is that banks will have to charge higher mortgage rates in order to compensate for the loss in purchasing power of the returned money. Recall in the 1970s and early 1980s, mortgage rates were very high because inflation was high. Another negative worth watching is that the Federal Reserve will have to report a loss on its huge accumulation of bond purchases. (Econ 101: higher interest rate on a bond lowers the price of the bond). Though not a consequential event in terms of economic impact or the amount lost, there will be a political firestorm about why the Fed is losing money. This theatric show can be expected in 2015 or 2016.
- Foot traffic provides a strong indication of future home sales. SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with monthly data on the number of showings.
- Foot traffic eased 2% over the 12-month period ending in July in the area covered by the Maine Real Estate Information Systems. July was the first month of a year-over year decline after three consecutive increases.
- Mortgage rates jumped at the end of June rising nearly a full percentage point to average roughly 4.5% in July. Rates along with low inventories likely drove this months decline, however current rates are historically low and affordability is strong.