Pending Home Sales Index

Pending home sales fell in September, after posting a healthy reading in August, still eked out a rise compared to a year ago. NAR’s pending home sales index, based on con-tracts signed in September, declined to 89.2 from an upwardly revised figure of 93.5 in August. September’s index is 1.6 percent higher than that posted in September 2007.

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Existing-Home Sales

Existing home sales posted 5.18 million seasonally adjusted annualized units in September – a 5.5% increase from August’s resales pace and 1.4% ahead of the pace registered in September 2007. Home prices continued to retreat, with the national median price of an existing home at $191,600 in September. Housing inventory declined to a 9.9 months supply at the current sales pace.
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New-Home Sales

New home sales rose 2.7% in September to 464,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units. The pace is still 33.1% off that posted in September of 2007. The inventory of new homes available for sale at the end of the month declined to 394,000 – a 10.4 months supply at the current sales pace.
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Housing Starts

Housing starts posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000 units – a 6.3% decline from August’s level and 31.1% off the level registered in September of 2007. Single-family housing starts were down 12.0% from the previous month, but multifamily starts rose 5.8% from August. Housing permits, generally a reliable indicator for future starts declined 8.3% from August to 786,000 – 38.4% off the level posted in September 2007.
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Housing Affordability

Housing affordability improved in September. NAR’s housing affordability index stood at 135.2 for September – up from August’s revised reading of 123.3 and a third consecutive monthly increase. The rise in affordability was due to a decline in the national median price for an existing home, a decrease in qualifying income, and lower interest rates.
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Mortgage Rates

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.20% in October, after dropping in September. Gaps continue to widen between mortgage bond yields from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as compared to the US treasuries and was one of the main reasons for the driving up of rates. Still, compared to a year ago, mortgage rates are lower.

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Employment

The economy continued to lose jobs in October as 240,000 non-farm payrolls were cut. Job losses in both September and August were revised upward – significantly. The nation’s unemployment rate also rose significantly – to a 14-year high of 6.5%. Job gains in sectors including government, health care and accounting/bookkeeping were not enough to offset the major losses in construction, retail, securities firms and automakers.
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Economic Growth

The U.S. economy contracted in the third quarter of 2008, as real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3%. This is the first estimate of third quarter economic growth based on incomplete data. Among the major components contributing to the negative GDP figure were sharp declines in personal consumption expenditures and slower growth in exports.
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