The index is designed to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate. NAR reviewed a wide variety of indicators, examined the relationships of indicators that demonstrated a historical impact on commercial real estate, and modeled a forward looking index based on historic trends.
Quarterly data for 13 selected series were reviewed back through the first quarter of 1990. The modeling demonstrated a change in commercial brokerage activity that could be seen two quarters later as measured by net absorption in the industrial and office sectors, and the value of building construction put-in-place on completion of retail, office, warehouse and lodging structures. An index of 100 is defined as the level of commercial real estate market activity during the first quarter of 1990, the first period to be analyzed.
Download Detailed Description, Methodology & Background (PDF: 80KB)
Download Commercial Leading Indicator by Quarter: 1990–Present (Excel: 17KB)
*The series has been discontinued as of Q4 2009.