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Commercial real estate market fundamentals are fairly stable, although investment is waning following a record year in 2007, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the commercial real estate market is holding essentially even. “We’re seeing no significant changes in vacancy rates or rent growth, so the fundamentals in commercial real estate still seem to be respectable,” he said. “Under normal circumstances, near-full occupancy coupled with positive rent growth would be of strong interest to investors, but we’re not seeing that. The credit crunch has filtered into the commercial real estate market.”
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According to the latest forecast, the volume of existing-home sales is expected to hold steady through late spring, with a gradual recovery during the second half of the year as the mortgage situation improves in high-cost areas. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said many buyers have been waiting for higher mortgage loan limits. “The higher loan limits for both FHA and conventional loans will increase consumer choice and provide greater access to lower interest rate mortgages in high-cost regions,” he said. “Therefore, a notable rise in home sales can be anticipated in the second half of the year."
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The Research Web site has a new addition – the Economists’ Commentary page, updated daily with articles on many different aspects of the housing market. This is an invaluable way to get a straight look at how the market is doing and what trends to be watching for. These brief articles are jam-packed with timely, easy-to-understand information that every Realtor® should know. You can visit the page, or subscribe to the RSS feed and get the updates sent right to your RSS reader.
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The housing market will get some relief this year, as higher loan limits - up to $729,000 from $417,000 - in several local areas, including Los Angeles, Orange, and San Francisco counties, will have a big impact in bringing out the buyers. Second half home sales will no doubt be much stronger than first half as a result. Existing home sales will rise to a 5.7 million unit pace in the second half versus 4.9 million in the first half. Rising sales will also bring down inventory and help strengthen home prices, generally speaking. The national median price will fall in the first half and then rise in the second half. For the year as a whole, it will have fallen by 1% - after having fallen 1.4% last year. As is always the case, there will be tremendous local market variations. The Northeast region is likely to be first region to show signs of stabilizing and then strengthening housing market conditions, while the West region will likely trail behind.
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The REALTORS® Confidence Index is a key indicator of housing market strength based on a monthly survey of 3,500 real estate practitioners. Practitioners are asked about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions. Tell NAR what is going on in YOUR Market! It’s easy. Simply click the link below. We'll send you an e-mail once a month with five brief questions about your market expectations. We'll also send you the results of the latest survey so that you can compare your assessment with what others are saying. In addition, you'll be entered into a drawing to win a $50 American Express Gift Cheque.
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Report compiled by NAR's Research Division.
Questions about this report? Contact Research at mdunn@realtors.org. |
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