Economist's Commentary: June 16, 2008
Data Integrity
By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist
NAR goofed up big time on housing statistics for New Jersey. I accept full responsibility for this error. I want to thank the people who questioned and inquired about the original wrong statistics that were released. You are serving the public interest.
This event bothers me greatly because I take data integrity most seriously. The public deserves only the most accurate data. If we make mistakes, we will fess up and correct it as quickly as possible.
We have a choice regarding housing statistics:
- Publish statistics
- Do not publish statistics
I believe publishing data serves the public better than not publishing. As with any statistics, there will be sampling errors. In this New Jersey case, the big time error was essentially an inadvertent typo in computing seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate.
Publishing data opens one up for possibly scrutiny. However, having information, which I believe is reasonably accurate 99 percent of time, is far better than having no information.
With this in mind, please be cognizant that there is no guarantee on absolute accuracy. I hope any future errors, if any, are towards underestimating and not overestimating the strength of market conditions.
Uncertainty and not having enough information are factors that can paralyze the market. In order to facilitate market transactions, information is critical. Ever-changing supply and demand will constantly lead to changes in sales and prices - both up and down. Often, a downward adjustment better facilitates future transactions. I just want to see the market play out which ever way it will, determining the final statistics.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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