Economist's Commentary: October 24, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: October 24, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist 
Existing Home Sales
- A nice jump in sales in September. The details on the latest figures are here.
The Stock Market
- Looks like another day of big gyration in the stock and financial markets. LIBOR rate has come down steadily over the past few days indicating that the financial market liquidity flow is improving. However, global recessionary fears are now driving the stock market movements.
- Lower stock prices eat up household wealth and will mean stagnant consumer spending going forward.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Homebuyers are returning to many markets. It is still a buyer's market, but will it be the case one year from now?
- Job market pains will continue for another six months.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 8th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q3: -0.3%
- GDP Q4: - 0.6%
- Unemployment rate at year end: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.4%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate cut at the end of October.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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