Quick Take: Mortgage Applications
Quick Take on the Economy: October 29, 2008
By Ken Fears, Manager of Regional Economics 
Mortgage Applications - Mortgage Bankers Association
- The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index jumped 8.5 percent, from 279.3 to 303.1, for the week ending October 24th, but is still down 26.6 percent below the figure from a year earlier.
- This week's increase is the first after two weeks of sharp decline. The volume index for Government loans jumped 10.1 percent, while the conventional purchase index rose 7.9 percent.
- Durable goods orders rose 0.8% this month, boosted by a 1.4 percent increase in orders for non-defense aircraft. Core goods jumped 2.0 percent.
What does this mean for Realtors® and consumers?
- Mortgage rates continue to see-saw up and down around 6.25 percent for a 30-year FRM. Rates fell towards the end of last week, likely drawing in some demand for new purchases.
- The modest improvement in durable goods orders after several months of harsh declines is a bright spot for employment in Wichita, Kansas and the Seattle areas. These new orders should provide stimulus in these two areas to counteract the slowing national economic trend. Steady employment will help home sales and mitigate foreclosures there.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 8th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q3: -0.3%
- GDP Q4: - 0.6%
- Unemployment rate at year end: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.4%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate cut at the end of October.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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