Economist's Commentary: May 7, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: May 7, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Pending Home Sales Index and NAR Forecast
- The latest data and forecast are discussed fully here.
Mortgage Applications - Every Wednesday
- Mortgage applications for home purchases bounced back with a 12 percent increase in the latest week. The index is still down by 13 percent from a year ago.
- Refinance applications also jumped nicely by 19 percent over the week after two straight weeks of notable declines. This index is 7 percent higher from a year ago.
Fannie Mae Announcement
- Fannie Mae announced this morning that it will purchase conforming jumbo loans for its portfolio at the same pricing as non-jumbo loans.
- This will measurable reduce interest rates on jumbo loans very soon.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Broadly speaking, anticipate a better economy, home sales, and home prices in the second half of the year.
- Large local variations exist. Talk to local professionals to get proper local assessment.
- Mortgage rates on jumbo loans will fall notably to the tune of one full percentage point. That means about 6.3 percent average rate rather than the current 7.3 percent.
- Consumers needing a jumbo loan could save about $3,000 in annual interest cost.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (250K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.4%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.2%
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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