Economist's Commentary: May 7, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: May 7, 2008

By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist


Pending Home Sales Index and NAR Forecast

Mortgage Applications - Every Wednesday

  • Mortgage applications for home purchases bounced back with a 12 percent increase in the latest week. The index is still down by 13 percent from a year ago.
  • Refinance applications also jumped nicely by 19 percent over the week after two straight weeks of notable declines. This index is 7 percent higher from a year ago.

Fannie Mae Announcement

  • Fannie Mae announced this morning that it will purchase conforming jumbo loans for its portfolio at the same pricing as non-jumbo loans.
  • This will measurable reduce interest rates on jumbo loans very soon.

What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?

  • Broadly speaking, anticipate a better economy, home sales, and home prices in the second half of the year.
  • Large local variations exist. Talk to local professionals to get proper local assessment.
  • Mortgage rates on jumbo loans will fall notably to the tune of one full percentage point. That means about 6.3 percent average rate rather than the current 7.3 percent.
  • Consumers needing a jumbo loan could save about $3,000 in annual interest cost.

Daily Forecast Update

  • NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (250K PDF)
  • GDP Q2: 0.4%
  • GDP Q3: 2.0%
  • Unemployment rate by election time: 5.6%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June: 6.1%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.2%

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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Fast Facts

Nearly one-quarter of first-time buyers are single females who purchased their first home on a median income of $47,400.
Source: 2008 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.