Economist's Commentary: May 23, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: May 23, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Existing Home Sales
Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan)
- Consumer sentiment index fell for the fourth straight month falling to the lowest level since 1980.
High food and gasoline prices are a daily reminder of something wrong. Falling home values in many parts of the country also are weighing down on consumers. - Consumer spending growth in 2008 will be one of the weakest in recent memory.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- High housing inventory means home sellers need to be realistic about market conditions.
- Economic growth will be challenged as consumers pull back on spending.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.7%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.2%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in January 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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