Economist's Commentary: May 29, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: May 29, 2008

By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

The number of people filing for unemployment checks rose modestly in the latest week to 372,000. It is still below the 400,000 that would be needed to tip us into a recession.
The continuing claims also increased modestly - implying that finding new jobs after being laid off is a challenge.
Michigan experienced a decline in claims - some measure of good news for the hardest hard state, which has lost jobs for the past eight years.

Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP - or overall economic production) was revised modestly higher. GDP grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter up from 0.6 percent reported last month.
This reading is the second read on the economy based on more information. A third and final reading is for the next month and, generally, a very little revision occurs in the third reading.
Exports rose strongly. Inventories fell, which is a good news in terms of help better lift second quarter GDP as companies will have to order and produce more to replenish depleted inventory.

The economy was not in a recession in the first quarter. The second quarter growth will likely be higher. The third and fourth quarter will be even stronger as tax rebate checks will temporarily lift the economy.
Overall net job gains will return within few short months.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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