Economist's Commentary: June 5, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 5, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Unemployment Claims - Every Thursday
- The first-time jobless claims fell 18,000 in the past week. The continuing claims slid by
16,000. - Fewer people are showing up to get unemployment checks during the week. The current level of 357,000 first-time claimants and 3.09 million continuing claims are certainly higher compared to a year ago, but not close to the levels reached during the last recession in 2001.
- These figures are over the week containing a holiday (Memorial Day). There is always some volatility associated with weeks containing a holiday.
- Tomorrow's release on payroll employment data carries much more weight. It may actually surprise on the upside with a modest net positive job gain, ending several straight months of net job losses.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Cautiously optimistic on the job front.
- Job growth will be required going into second half to help home sales because mortgage rates are anticipated to rise modestly.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (PDF 15K
- GDP Q2: 1.2%
- GDP Q3: 2.2%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.4%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in June: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in January 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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