Economist's Commentary: June 9, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 9, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Pending Home Sales
- Today's data on pending home sales is discussed in detail here.
Employment Trends Index
- The Conference Board has constructed a new employment index to help better anticipate job trends and this index weakened in May and was notably lower compared to a year ago.
- As with any new data series, time will tell on the usefulness of this index.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Home sales may have turned the corner in some markets.
- Homes that are priced realistically are the ones attracting the buyers.
- Jobs will become increasing important in lifting home sales as interest rates rise. But there is no clear indication of improvement in jobs yet.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (PDF 15K)
- GDP Q2: 1.1%
- GDP Q3: 2.1%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in January 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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