Economist's Commentary: June 10, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 10, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
International Trade
- Trade deficit notably widened to $60.9 billion in April from $56.4 billion in March. The deficit is now moved ahead of the $58 billion monthly average in the past 12 months.
- Exports are still rising very fast with a near 20 percent gain from a year ago. But imports, largely due to higher payments for energy, accelerated to 13.5 percent in April from 8 percent gain in March.
- Rising trade deficit implies even slower rate of economic expansion in April.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Export related businesses are doing well.
- However, high oil prices are hampering economic growth with too much dollar being sent abroad.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (PDF 15K)
- GDP Q2: 0.9%
- GDP Q3: 2.1%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in January 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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