Economist's Commentary: June 11, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 11, 2008
By Ken Fears, Manager of Regional Economics
Mortgage Applications - Mortgage Bankers Association
- Jumped 12.8%, from 333.6 to 376.2, this week after 4 weeks of decline. Applications are off the pace from a month ago by 1.3%
What does this mean for Realtors® and consumers?
- Applications are well off what they were in June of 2007, but could rebound nicely if this upward trend holds through the summer.
- The summer sales season is back and will likely cause applications to rise through the remainder of the summer. The economy, gas and foreclosures weigh on consumers' minds, but affordability is historically strong and will only soften with rising rates. When consumers realize this fact, the trickle of rising sales should swell.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of May 7th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.9%
- GDP Q3: 2.1%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in January 2009..
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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