Economist's Commentary: June 18, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 18, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Mortgage Applications - Every Wednesday
- With mortgage rates rising, mortgage applications fell in the past week.
- Applications for home purchase fell 4 percent during the week while applications for refinance fell 9 percent.
- The week-to-week movements can be volatile and this index has not been a good predictor of actual home sale closings. Nonetheless, it provides good directional qualitative trends.
- Applications do not mean approvals. Late last year and early this year, at the height of the credit crunch, the approvals-to-applications ratio was likely to have been depressed. With some loosening in the credit market, the ratio could be modestly higher.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Mortgage rates are ticking higher.
- If inflation remains elevated, do not expect any meaningful retreat in mortgage rates. It is more likely that mortgage rates move higher still.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of June 9th
- GDP Q2: 0.5%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.6%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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