Economist's Commentary: June 19, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: June 19, 2008

By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

The number of first time filers for unemployment checks declined by 5,000 in the latest week to 381,000.
The decline should not be viewed as good news because it is a fall on the heel of a generally rising trend and a notable upward revision to the prior week's data.
Better news is the decline in continuing claims by 76,000. There are now 3.06 million people who are receiving unemployment checks. It implies that some people are able to find jobs after being laid off.
Today's data is consistent with very slow economic growth, but not genuine recessionary conditions.

Debate continues in Congress about the FHA loan expansion, the final loan limit that Fannie and Freddie can participate in, and about homebuyer tax credit.
One thing is clear on homebuyer credit. It will be retroactive to homes purchased in April of this year and the window will be open until March of next year - assuming Congress can send the bill to the White House and the President signs it into a law.

The economy is struggling to move ahead. But it is not sliding backwards.
FHA mortgages will become even more popular.
Many of today's first-time homebuyers can be assured of a tax credit to the tune of at least $5,000 assuming the bill becomes a law.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

Comments? Questions? E-mail NAR Research.

NAR members, learn how you can add this commentary to your Web site, blog, or newsletter. Read more >