Economist's Commentary: June 27, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 27, 2008
By Jessica Lautz, Senior Research Analyst
Personal Income
- The Commerce Department reported today that personal income has increased by 1.9 percent from April of 2008 as a result of the Economic Stimulus Act.
- Personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.8 percent in May of 2008.
- Disposable personal income increased by 5.7 percent in May of 2008 compared to just 0.4 percent in April.
University of Michigan Sentiment Index
- The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was released today with a ranking of 56.40.
- The sentiment ranking was a decline from May's ranking of 59.8. The steady decline in recent months has resulted in the lowest monthly ranking in the last 20 years.
- The pressure consumers are feeling at the pump and for food prices have caused a gloomier outlook than what was expected.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The economy is struggling to get ahead, though tax rebate checks have helped with income and spending - albeit temporarily.
- Consumers are feeling angst. Home buying could be impacted as a result.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of June 9th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.6%
- GDP Q3: 2.1%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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