Economist's Commentary: July 2, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: July 2, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
ADP Employment Report
- A private industry measurement showed a large decline in private payroll jobs. There were 79,000 fewer jobs in June.
- This ADP report comes out before the more authoritative job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Thursday. The correlation in recent months has been notably off between ADP and BLS figures with ADP generally overstating job market strength.
Mortgage Applications - Every Wednesday
- More people showed up at mortgage offices this past week. Applications for a home purchase rose 3 percent while that for refinances rose 5 percent.
- The purchase applications index now stands at 343, which is well below the average level of 425 in 2007.
FHA mortgages are getting much greater attention. FHA applications for a home purchase are 146 percent higher from a year ago.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Jobs continue to sink. Tomorrow's data from the government will provide clear picture on which sectors are losing jobs.
- A slight dip in mortgage rates last week induced people to apply for mortgages. The housing sector is particularly sensitive to even small changes in interest rates.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of June 9th (48K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.7%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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