Economist's Commentary: July 8, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: July 3, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Pending Home Sales Index
- Pending home sales retreated in May after a solid gain the previous month.
- Detailed discussion here >
Wholesale Inventory
- Wholesalers have stocked up on inventory in May with an 0.8 percent monthly gain. The April figures were revised higher.
- More inventory was needed to relieve the very thin inventory-to-sales ratio. It also implies more production activity at U.S. companies. In other words, inventory adds to GDP growth.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- We are not out of the woods yet. Housing recovery is taking hold in some markets while other markets are showing weakening conditions. There are huge variations between localities and among neighborhoods.
- Consumers are down but nation's factory related activity is doing quite fine. The economy could surprise on the upside when the second quarter GDP is released later in the month.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8th (250K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 0.8%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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