Economist's Commentary: July 21, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: July 21, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- Chicago Fed's index improved -0.6 in June from -1.06 in the prior month. It is negative, meaning subpar performance.
- This index summarizes 85 monthly variables into one index. A reading of zero implies historically normal conditions at a normal expansionary rate. Sub-zero implies lower growth rate and not necessarily an outright contraction.
Leading Economic Index
- The leading index went down a notch according to the Conference Board.
- The falling stock market contributed to the decline in the index in the past month.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The economy is weak and struggling to create jobs.
- Consumers will be extra cautious before making a big purchase.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8th (250K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 1.7%
- GDP Q3: 1.7%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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