Economist's Commentary: July 31, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: July 31, 2008

By George Ratiu

Unemployment Insurance Claims - Every Thursday

• The weekly data on unemployment claims pointed to a slow job market. There were 448,000 people filing for claims for the first time, an increase of 44,000 over the previous week's revised number.
• The continuing claims increased by 185,000 with a total now at 3.3 million people receiving unemployment checks.

Gross Domestic Product

• Increased 1.9 percent from the first to the second quarter of 2008.
• The increase in real GDP was due to several factors—increased exports, personal consumption, nonresidential structures, as well as federal, state and local government spending.

What does this mean for REALTORS® and consumers?

• Though not robust, GDP grew at a decent pace in the second quarter. However, today's jobless claims point towards weaker conditions in the third quarter.
• The job market is very soft. Be careful about quitting your job unless you already have another lined up.

Daily Forecast Update

• NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8(48K PDF)
• GDP Q2: 1.9% (actual preliminary)
• GDP Q3: 1.7%
• Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
• The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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