Economist's Commentary: August 7, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 7, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Pending Home Sales
- Solid broad-based gains in Pending Home Sales in June. The index reading of 89 is the highest in eight months.
- For a more detailed discussion, read more >
Unemployment Insurance - Every Thursday
- The number of people filing for jobless claims for the first-time rose to 455,000 in the latest week from 448,000 in the past week. A level above 400,000 has been the case in the last recession in 2001. The figure had averaged 322,000 in 2007 and 363,000 in the first half of this year.
- The continuing claims - or the people continuing to collect unemployment checks - also rose to 3.3 million. This figure had averaged 2.5 million in 2007.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Home sales activity have picked up notably in distressed areas with significant price declines. There are still tremendous variations depending upon locality.
- The job market is very soft. The unemployment rate will march higher at least through the election date in November.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of August 7 (14.12K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- GDP Q4: 0.4%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.9%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.6%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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