Economist's Commentary: August 8, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 8, 2008
By Jessica Lautz, Senior Research Analyst
Monthly Wholesale Trade
- The U.S. Census Bureau released the June 2008 sales of merchant wholesalers, which was $411.2 billion.
- This is an increase of 2.8 percent from the revised May level.
- This is also an increase of 17.0 percent from the June 2007 level.
- June sales of durable goods were up 1.3 percent from last year and sales of nondurable goods increased 24.3 percent from last year.
Oil Prices
- Crude oil prices dropped today to a three month low. Consumers will have extra cash to spend on other products.
- This raises our economic forecast by a notch for the fourth quarter.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Though retail sales remain soft, wholesale trade is rising at a nice clip. The demand for warehouses could be rising as a result.
- Lower oil prices may help lift retail sales in later months.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of August 7th (14.12K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- GDP Q4: 0.5%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.9%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.6%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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