Economist's Commentary: September 4, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: September 4, 2008

By Danielle Hale, Research Economist

Weekly initial unemployment claims moved up for the week ending August 30 to 444,000 despite analysts' predictions that they would fall for a fourth consecutive week.
While the weekly increase is alarming to some, the four week moving average, which gives a slightly longer term picture, declined by 3,250 to 438,000.

The Non-Manufacturing Index, an indicator of conditions in non-manufacturing industries like Real Estate, increased 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%. Two subcomponents of the index, business activity and new orders index, also saw increases; the employment subcomponent saw a slight decrease.
Index values above 50% are consistent with growth, so today's index value is a positive indicator.
The Real Estate, Rental and Leasing industry was among the industries reporting growth in the overall index. The real estate industry saw a reduction in employment.

Today’s information is consistent with the emerging theme we’ve seen recently. Positive data is starting to trickle in as seen in the service sector, but the current job situation gives some reason for caution about the strength of economic expansion.
Job gains tend to lag an improvement in the economy, so while we're not quite there yet, employment could turn for the better in few months.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

NAR members, learn how you can add this commentary to your Web site, blog, or newsletter. Read more >

Comments? Questions? E-mail NAR Research.