Economist's Commentary: September 10, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: September 10, 2008

By Wannasiri Chompoopet, Manager of Housing Statistics

Mortgage Applications Survey

  • Every Wednesday the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases information on a subscription-based survey covering application activity for fixed rate, adjustable rate, conventional and government loans for home purchases and refinances activity of the prior week.
  • The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index increased 6.4%, from 349.0 to 371.5 for the week ending September 5, 2008. The level of the increase came from the Conventional Purchase Index which increased 14.4 percent, which offset the decrease in the Government Purchase Index (largely FHA) that declined 8.7 percent.
  • This week's increase is the fourth consecutive increase.

What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?

  • Consecutive rises in mortgage applications signal that buyers are returning to the market, possibly at a moderate pace but still in numbers that can be measured. While it may take some time for consumers to absorb recent positive housing news, affordable home prices, the still historic low mortgage rates - and a large selection of existing inventory - are already attracting the fence sitters.

Daily Forecast Update

  • NAR's monthly official forecast as of September 9th (15K PDF)
  • GDP Q3: 1.8%
  • GDP Q4: 0.8%
  • Unemployment rate by election time: 6.2%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
  • The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in March 2009.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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Fast Facts

Nearly one-quarter of first-time buyers are single females who purchased their first home on a median income of $47,400.
Source: 2008 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.