Quick Take: Unemployment Rate, International Trade

September 11, 2008

By Harika "Anna" Barlett, Senior Research Analyst, NAR Research  

Weekly Unemployment Claims

• Weekly initial unemployment claims fell last week by 6,000 to 445,000 from its hike in the previous week.
• The Labor Department announced that the four-week moving average was 440,000, with a difference of 250 from the previous week's revised average of 439,750.
• Initial jobless claims number keeps its average above 400,000, what is considered to be an indicator of a weak labor market.
• Continuing unemployment claims was 3.525 million, 122,000 higher than the preceding week.

International Trade

• In July, exports increased by $5.4 billion from their June level and imports increased by $8.7 billion. The resulting exports of $168.1 billion and imports of $230.3 billion created a trade deficit of 62.2 billion, up from $58.8 billion in June.
• The main cause of the increase in imports was high oil prices that offset the growth in exports. On the other hand, oil prices consequently experienced a decline in August and early September. In July, the largest increases in deficits compared to June figures in billions of dollars were with OPEC (an increase of $6.1), China ($3.5), the European Union ($2.8), Canada ($1.1), and Venezuela ($0.8).

What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?

• Weak job market conditions continue to be a concern. However, exports are growing strongly, and export related industries may create some employment opportunity.
• The increase in the trade deficit in July was mainly due to high oil prices. Oil prices have been declining since then, and a reversal of their negative impact on imports is expected for August.
• A positive side of recent economic developments is an expected decline in inflation. This will prevent an increase in interest rates.

Daily Forecast Update

• NAR's monthly official forecast as of September 9th (15K PDF)
• GDP Q3: 1.7%
• GDP Q4: 0.8%
• Unemployment rate by election time: 6.2%
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.3%
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
• The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in March 2009.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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