Economist's Commentary: September 18, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: September 18, 2008
By Danielle Hale, Research Economist 
Weekly Unemployment Claims
- Weekly initial unemployment claims moved up by 10,000 for the week ending September 13 to 455,000. This figure is again somewhat higher than analysts anticipated, in part due to effects from Hurricane Gustav.
- The four week moving average, which gives a slightly longer term picture, also increased to 445,000.
Conference Board Leading Indicators Index
- The Leading Indicators Index, a measure that is designed to gauge future economic performance by summarizing several statistics into a single measure, declined 0.5 percent in August.
- This decline was due in part to the continued building slowdown and employment figures.
- The decline was mitigated by favorable consumer expectations and interest rate spread.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The elevated unemployment insurance numbers and declining leading indicator are consistent with the weakness that is felt in the economy though the figure remains below peaks seen during previous recessions.
- Weekly data are prone to fluctuations, but a persistent decline in the employment situation may offset some of the stimulus to housing demand as a result of favorable mortgage conditions and government incentives such as the homebuyer tax credit.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of September 9th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 1.4%
- GDP Q4: 0.6%
- Unemployment rate by year's end: 6.3%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.5%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in April 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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