Economist's Commentary: September 22, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: September 22, 2008
By Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics 
Treasury Yields
- The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has swung wildly in recent days in response to investors buying up what they perceive to be the safest asset on the market during this period of re-adjustment in the financial market.
- The yield slid from 3.73 percent on the 12th of September to 3.41 percent by the 17th.
- After the Treasury announced that it would support money market funds on Friday, we saw the yield surge to 3.77 percent from 3.44 percent on Friday; that is a 33 basis point jump in one day!
What does this mean for Realtors® and consumers?
- Gyrations in the Treasury market could create an opportunity for buyers in the short-term.
- Keep an eye out and be ready for a sharp drop in rates. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but a sharp drop could greatly enhance affordability.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of September 9th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 1.4%
- GDP Q4: 0.6%
- Unemployment rate by year end: 6.3%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.5%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in April 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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