Economist's Commentary: September 24, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: September 24, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Existing Home Sales
- Sales dropped modestly in August but have been essentially stable at around 5 million for the past 12 months.
- More analysis in this commentary.
Mortgage Applications
- Mortgage applications retreated in the past week after having surged in the prior three weeks. The four-week moving average is comfortably above a month ago levels.
- The takeover of Fannie and Freddie by the government has brought down mortgage rates.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Sales have been stable for the past 12 months and this trend will continue for additional 2 or 3 months.
- Lower mortgage rates and lower home prices have significantly improved affordability for buyers.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of September 9th (15K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 1.3%
- GDP Q4: 0.6%
- Unemployment rate at year end: 6.3%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.5%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in late April 2009.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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