Economist's Commentary: April 10, 2008

Quick Take on the Economy: April 10, 2008

By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist

Unemployment Claims  (Updated every Thursday)

• The first time claims for unemployment insurance fell notably in the latest week. The latest read was 357,000, compared to 410,000 the week before.
  
• The figure is still much higher than normal. It averaged 322,000 per week in 2007. A consistent reading of over 400,000 claims would correspond to recessionary conditions.
  
• The continuing claims were unchanged for the prior week (there is a one-week delay in this data series).
  
• There were 2.94 million receiving unemployment checks.
  
• The latest data is an improvement in job market conditions, but the weekly data tends to be a bit volatile.

International Trade

• The trade deficit rose to $62 billion in February from $58 billion a month before due to faster growth in import in relation to exports. Exports rose 2 percent while imports increased 3.1 percent during the month.
  
• Over the past 12 months, exports continue to ramp up strongly, rising 20.8 percent. Imports are up 16.4 percent.

What Does Today's Data Mean for REALTORS® and Consumers?

• The widening trade deficit trims GDP growth in the first quarter. My estimate is for essentially zero growth.
  
• But the economy is still not in dire straits. Unemployment insurance data is not (yet) suggesting a recession.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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