Economist's Commentary: June 20, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: June 20, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
State Employment Report
- Government's data on state employment conditions show wide variations.
- Texas is booming. It created 239,000 jobs over the past 12 months. At distant second, Washington state added 35,000. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming round out the top five.
- Michigan has been in a recession since 2000 and job bleeding continues. It lost 69,000 payroll jobs. Rhode Island has slipped into the negative and now shows 11,000 fewer jobs.
- The four states (CA, AZ, NV, and FL) with fast rising foreclosures also have fewer jobs due primarily to job cuts in construction industry. Interestingly, these states have recently shown signs of life with home sales rising in the aftermath of sharp home price reductions.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The job market in general is struggling, but there are large local variations.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of June 9th
- GDP Q2: 0.4%
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.7%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.5%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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