Forecast Update: Mortgage Applications, FHFA Index, Housing Starts, New Home Sales

The NAR Research staff now gives you a weekly analysis of the economic data released during the past week, and how current economic conditions are affecting the real estate market. For daily economic forecasts, visit NAR Research’s Facebook page.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010:

• Builders held back on adding more homes to the already high housing inventory, showing a good sign of housing market recovery. A high unemployment rate coupled with decreased demand due to end of the tax credit slowed down New Home Sales in May, as the latest report show. An increase in permits for new construction, however, signaled a pickup for home builders in near future.
• Housing starts dropped 5 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted rate of 549,000- the lowest since October 2009 when it was at 529,000.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010:

• Mortgage purchase applications increased 3.4 percent for the week ending July 16. However, purchase applications remain near 13-year lows. Purchase applications do not take into consideration all-cash purchases which according to the REALTORS® Confidence Index made up 25 percent of transactions. Purchase applications down 35.7 percent from the same week a year ago.
• Purchase applications moved up largely as a result of the 8 percent increase in the government portion of the index, which are primarily FHA loans. Conventional purchase loans were up a more modest 0.3 percent.
• Refinances continued to be strong, moving up 8.6 percent, driven by the lowest mortgage rates since the survey began in 1972. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.59 percent.

Thursday, July 22, 2010:

• NAR released the Existing Home Sales numbers this month. Read press release >

Friday, July 23, 2010:

• The FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index increased 0.5 percent in May. This is the third consecutive monthly increase for this measure of house prices which tracks prices of homes backing mortgages that are sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The increase in prices was broadly geographically distributed; 7 of 9 regions (all except the East North Central and East South Central) saw prices increase in May.
• For the 12 months ending in May, the FHFA measure showed a 1.2 percent decline in prices. For the comparable period, NAR's median home price series declined by 0.1 percent. In the EHS release Thursday, NAR reported that the median price from June 2009 to June 2010 rose 1.0 percent. NAR's median series covers sold homes that were listed on a Multiple Listing Service.
• Yesterday, Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed rate mortgages reached an all-time low of 4.56 percent. This follows Mortgage Bankers' data on Wednesday that also showed record-low mortgage rates. Low mortgage rates may provide a boost to the housing market, but their effect will be either magnified or tempered by job market performance. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased more than expected after a huge retreat in the previous week. While different seasonal patterns may account for part of the surprise, these figures suggest that the uncertain outlook for jobs may somewhat offset the potential draw of affordable prices and low mortgage rates.

This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >

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