Daily Forecast Update: Unemployment Insurance Claims, Manufacturer's Orders, etc
January 28, 2010
By George Ratiu, Research Economist 
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of January 5th
- GDP 2009 Q4: +4.3%
- GDP 2010 Q1: +2.7%
- GDP 2010 Q2: +2.4%
- Unemployment rate by the mid-2010: 10.1%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2010 2009: 5.6%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The decline in unemployment insurance claims is welcome news. However, the change underscores a great deal of seasonal volatility in current employment trends.
- While the number of unemployed workers is still high, the drop in claims points in the right direction. A sustainable economic recovery is dependent on employment growth.
- The increase in orders and shipments for manufactured goods is a positive sign, in step with other business and economic indicators.
- Lower inventories are also providing a boost to the economic recovery.
Unemployment Insurance Claims
- The Department of Labor reported that the number of people filing for unemployment checks for the first time decreased by 8,000 last week, to 470,000 from the previous week's revised number. The four-week moving average increased by 9,500 claims.
- The total number of people receiving checks is now 4.6 million, a 57,000 decrease over the prior week. A year ago the figure was 4.7 million.
Advance Report on Manufacturers' Orders, Shipments and Inventories
- New orders for manufactured goods increased $0.5 billion in December, up 0.3 percent from November. The increase comes on the heels of two consecutive drops in the prior months.
- Manufacturers' shipments of goods increased $5.1 billion or 2.9 percent. This follows a 0.8 percent rise in November.
- Inventories declined $0.6 billion or 0.2 percent, following a 0.2 percent decrease in November.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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