Daily Forecast Update: ADP Employment Report, MBA Purchase Applications, etc
February 3, 2010
By Arun Barman, Research Economist
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of January 5th
- GDP 2010 Q1: +2.2%
- GDP 2010 Q2: +2.1%
- GDP 2010 Q3: +2.5%
- Unemployment rate by the mid-2010: 10.0%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2010 2009: 5.6%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Good News: Job losses slowed significantly in January according to a private sector report. Getting more people back to work is vital to the economy and a strong housing market.
- Good News: Mortgage purchase applications were up sharply last week. This is a good sign for increased home buying activity.
- Mixed News: The service sector grew in January according to a private sector report, albeit the expansion was rather timid.
ADP Employment Report
- The ADP employment survey showed that employment was down 22,000 in January. While this is still a negative number, it is a far cry from the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost in many months throughout a large part of 2008 and 2009.
- The service sector saw an increase of 38,000 in employment, while the goods producing sector had employment losses of 60,000.
- Medium sized businesses (50-499 employees) saw slight gains in employment, while small and large size business each showed employment losses according to the survey.
MBA Purchase Applications
- A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that mortgage loan applications were up 21 percent for the week ending January 29th on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Purchases were up 10.3 percent from the previous week. However, looking at the data over the previous year, purchase applications were actually down 11.2 percent.
- Refinances were up 26.3 percent, and the share of refinances increased to 69.2 percent of all applications.
- The MBA weekly survey is somewhat volatile from week to week, and it omits all cash purchases so the data should be read cautiously.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Report
- The service sector index increased to 50.5 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
- Business activity index decreased slightly, while the new orders and employment indices increased slightly.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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