Daily Forecast Update: Weekly Mortgage Applications
October 21, 2009
By Arun Barman, Research Economist 
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 1st
- GDP 2009 Q3: +3.0%
- GDP 2009 Q4: +2.2% ↓
- GDP 2010 Q1: +3.2% ↓
- Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.2%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the end of 2009: 5.3%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Bad news on the housing data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications declined in the week ending October 16th.
- Both refinance and purchase applications declined in the latest reading of the data.
- Slightly higher mortgage rates as well as the onset of the November 30th deadline for the first-time home buyer tax credit seem to be impacting the market negatively.
- The Mortgage Bankers data does not include the growing segment of all-cash buyers.
Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications
- The Market Composite Index, an overall measure of mortgage loan application volume, declined a seasonally adjusted 13.7 percent from the previous week. The Columbus Day holiday fell during the week covered in the data, so the numbers have been adjusted as a result.
- Purchase applications fell a seasonally adjusted 7.6 percent, and are down 3.4 percent from the same week a year ago.
- Refinance applications declined 16.8 percent from the previous week. The share of refinance applications declined from 67.4 percent to 65 percent.
- Mortgage rates moved up slightly higher to 5.07.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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