Daily Forecast Update: Weekly Mortgage Rates & Federal Reserve
October 26, 2009
By Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics 
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 1st
- GDP 2009 Q3: +3.0%
- GDP 2009 Q4: +2.2%
- GDP 2010 Q1: +3.2%
- Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.2%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by the end of 2009: 5.3%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Mortgage rates moved up for the second straight week, but remain at relatively low levels. Low mortgage rates have provided a tremendous stimulus to the housing market.
- This week's increase in the 30-year FRM is likely a result of money moving out of the mortgage market and into the equity markets over the last two weeks to take advantage of the burst of gains in the equity markets.
- Economic headwinds remain which should mute further increases in mortgage rates keeping them in the low 5.0% range.
Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey
- The average rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased by 8 basis points to 5.0%; the second consecutive weekly increase, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey.
- The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year FRM rose to 159 basis points from 150 last week.
Balance Sheets: U.S. Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve's balance holdings of mortgage backed securities rose by $63.4 billion to $766.5 as of October 21st.
- The Fed has been actively buying securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mac in an effort to keep long-term mortgage rates low and to stimulate home purchases.
- The Fed has obligations to purchase an additional $151.4 billion.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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