Daily Forecast Update: 10-Year Treasury, Gas Prices
November 09, 2009
By Arun Barman, Research Economist
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 1st
- GDP 2009 Q4: +2.3%
- GDP 2010 Q1: +3.2% ↓
- GDP 2010 Q2: +3.0%
- Unemployment rate by the end of 2009: 10.4%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2010 2009: 5.6%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Good news: the Treasury rate remains near historical lows. The lower rate means that mortgage rates should continue to remain relatively low in the near term.
- Lower mortgage rates along with the extension of the home buyer tax credit, should create a strong home buying atmosphere for consumers. The tax credit now is available to some repeat buyers and has a higher income limit.
- Gas prices continued to move upward with a weakened dollar and possible hurricane threats in the Gulf of Mexico.
10-Year Treasury
- The 10-Year Treasury rate has been steady for the past few months. The rate is currently at 3.5 percent.
- The yield on the 10-year treasury has been in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range the past few months well below the historical trend.
- At the end of last week, Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell under five percent.
Oil Prices
- Oil prices increased to $79 per barrel today. Prices have nearly doubled since the below $40 per barrel prices seen this past winter.
- A weaker dollar has contributed to the rise of oil prices. Also, evacuations in off-shore oil rigs due Hurricane Ida in the Gulf of Mexico have put upward pressure on prices.
- Rising oil prices can be a signal of increasing demand (showing further signs the economy is recovering).
- However, higher gas prices can negatively impact consumers.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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