Daily Forecast Update: Stocks, Interest Rates, the Dollar
November 11, 2009
By Selma Lewis, Research Economist 
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of October 1st
- GDP 2009 Q4: +2.5%
- GDP 2010 Q1: +3.3%
- GDP 2010 Q2: +3.0%
- Unemployment rate by the end of 2009:10.4%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2010 2009: 5.6%
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Although there are no economic news releases today due to Veteran's Day, the U.S. stocks are open today.
- They opened higher today as economic news from China came in better than expected and investors liked the Federal Reserve's announcement of continued low interest rates.
- Also, after meeting with representatives from China and Japan, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner responded positively to Japan and China's efforts to stimulate domestic demand instead of putting so much emphasis on the American consumers. Geithner believes the shift is important for future stable global growth.
- In Japan, for example, the government is providing incentives for the purchase of environmentally friendly products, while Chinese government's massive stimulus, tax cuts and enhanced social welfare led to a 16 percent increase in retail sales last month, mostly in cars and consumer items.
- The dollar continues a downward trend and sunk to its 15-month low today. Although the Federal Reserve did not think dropping the value of the dollar is "disorderly", analysts believe that the fallen dollar, coupled with the low interest rates, will send investors seeking higher returns elsewhere in the world market. In contrast, the price of gold continues to go up.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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