Affordability is Key

By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist

The U.S. economy has entered a recession and will contract for the next three quarters. The recovery, beginning in the second half of 2009, will be tepid. The unemployment rate will peak at 6.7 percent by mid next year before steadily heading down.

Despite these challenging economic times, existing home sales will be rising. Why? The answer, in a word: affordability. Currently, the most important factor driving home sales is affordability. With home prices falling in many parts of the country and mortgage rates still near historic lows, affordability conditions have markedly improved. Even with rising unemployment, nearly 93 percent of households will have jobs. These 93 percent of the working households (rather than 95 percent during good economic times) respond to home buying incentives. Measures such as the recently enacted first-time homebuyer tax credit and a larger number of mortgage loans that qualify for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and through the FHA program will further bring homebuyers to the marketplace.

I say this because we have history as a lesson. Back in the prior recession (2001-2003) the economy shed nearly 2 million net jobs. Even during those years, existing-home sales rose from 5.2 million to 6.2 million just as jobs were being cut. New home sales, likewise rose from 900,000 to 1.1 million. Mortgage rates were falling. Housing affordability increased. While those 2 million job cuts were painful, the economy still had 130 million job holders. And given the right incentives, they purchased homes.

Other Indicators

Time-shift back to today. An early indication of buyers responding to incentives is the solid jump in the pending home sales index in August to its highest level in over a year. The biggest increases were in areas with rising affordability resulting from sharp reductions in home prices -- California, Nevada, and Florida. The expansion will broaden to other markets where home prices have also markedly fallen including Rhode Island, Virginia, and Minnesota. Existing home sales, therefore, will likely break out from the narrow trading range of 4.8 to 5 million of the past 12 months to 5.2 million units by year end and to 5.4 million units in 2009. While that is still well below the 7.1 million peak sales of a few years ago, remember a significant share of those sales were the result of rampant speculative buying in 2005.

New home sales will be a different story. There is an overhang of inventory and homebuilders are being forced to cut back sharply. New housing starts have fallen by about 60 percent from their peak activity three years ago. That isn’t necessarily all bad news – since so few new homes are being built, the inventory of vacant new homes on the market has fallen -- to 408,000 in August from nearly 600,000 just two years ago. The total housing inventory – new and existing combined – still remains elevated so further reduction in building by builders will be welcomed. Because of low housing starts, new home sales will continue to be soft.

For the rest of the “indicators” we look at, yes, there will be some pain before we have gain. Look for growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in the latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement. Our middle-ground assumptions forecast existing-home sales at 5.04 million units this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year. New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.

Affordability Will Continue to Improve

The best news out of our forecast is that affordability will continue to improve. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007. That is good news for potential home buyers and good news for the economy. And even though sales are expected to rise, the increase would be more certain – and more robust -- with an additional stimulus to boost home buying. Removing the repayment feature of the homebuyer tax credit and raising the loan limit higher could help achieve that. Once housing gets moving, then the economy can get moving as well.