Economists' Commentary
Below you will find Economists' Commentaries from February 2008-October 2008 and Quick Takes from March 2008-October 2008.
To see recent Economists' Commentaries and Quick Takes, or to find Did You Knows, return to Economists' Outlook.
Read 2008 Economists' Commentaries and Quick Takes
| February March April May |
June July August September |
October |
A Rare Commodity: Financing
October 31: A new problem has emerged: only those with superior credit and the ability to put down a substantial down payment can get financing at any rate. Ken Fears discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: October 30, 2008
October 30: Housing has the power to take the economy out of a recession. A speedy solution to lowering foreclosure rates and improving buyer confidence will prevent a deep recession. Read more >
Quick Take, October 29, 2008
October 29: Mortgage rates fell towards the end of last week, likely drawing in some demand for new purchases. Read more >
Quick Take, October 28, 2008
October 28, 2008: With consumer expectations at all-time lows, perhaps a bottom is not far away. Read more >
Tumbling Off of the Trade-Up Tightrope
October 27: Ken Fears discusses vacancies and the difficulties some trade-up buyers are now facing. Read more >
Quick Take, October 27, 2008
October 27, 2008: New home inventories continue to decline, a move in the right direction for the housing market. Read more >
Quick Take, October 24, 2008
October 24: Homebuyers are returning to many markets. It is still a buyer's market, but will it be the case one year from now? Read more >
Existing Home Sales in September
October 24, 2008: Existing home sales increased 5.5 percent in September to 5.18 million units (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) from 4.91 million units in August. Read more >
Quick Take, October 23, 2008
October 23: For those who are not timid, affordability is high due to reduced prices and lower mortgage rates. Read more >
Microcosm Michigan
October 23, 2008: Though improbable, a deep prolonged national recession may lead to a business cycle like the one Michigan is experiencing. Manisha Singh explains. Read more >
Quick Take: October 22, 2008
October 22: Mortgage rates continue to fluctuate wildly as buyers of debt re-evaluate their new options. Read more >
Quick Take: October 21, 2008
October 21: Homebuyers are getting tremendous incentives. A strengthening in home prices is just around the corner. Read more >
Quick Take: October 20, 2008
October 20: Once home prices settle, the valuation of mortgage-backed-securities will settle. In other words, helping the housing sector will help stabilize Wall Street. Read more >
The Credit Crunch and the Pain of Deleveraging
October 20, 2008: Credit isn't flowing because banks are holding on to whatever cash they have. Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: October 17, 2008
October 17: The sharp decline in construction is a healthy move for the overall housing market - it means that there will be a further reduction of the supply of new homes. Read more >
Quick Take: October 16, 2008
October 16: Mortgage Rates, Unemployment Insurance Claims, Industrial Production, the NAHB's Housing Market Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are all discussed in today's quick take. Read more >
Quick Take: October 15, 2008
October 15: Over the year, expect continued weakness in conventional mortgage applications and more government mortgage applications. Read more >
Quick Take: October 14, 2008
October 14: The economy will avert a deep recession. The short-term momentum still suggests weak consumer spending which will hold back the economy. Read more >
Quick Take: October 13, 2008
October 13: Mortgage rates are no longer at rock-bottom rates, but still favorable. Read more >
2009 Economic Outlook
October 13, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his economic forecast for 2009. Read more >
Quick Take: October 10, 2008
October 10: Consumers are putting off their car purchases. However, this doesn't necessarily mean they may wait for their home purchases. Read more >
Quick Take: October 9, 2008
October 9: Penny-pinching consumers will cause the overall economy to contract at least through the first quarter of 2009. Read more >
Multi-Family Market Trends
October 9, 2008: George Ratiu discusses the good news in the multi-family market trends. Read more >
Retail Market Trends
October 8, 2008: George Ratiu outlines how consumer spending is affecting the retail market. Read more >
Quick Take: October 8, 2008
October 8: A global economic recession is here. But the depth of the downfall will depend on when and how the U.S. housing market recovers. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in August
October 8, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his insight on the latest Pending Home Sales Index numbers and what they mean. Read more >
Quick Take: October 7, 2008
October 7: Downward pressure is being placed on mortgage rates. A buyer with great credit and money to put down could snatch up a fantastic opportunity on financing. Read more >
Quick Take: October 6, 2008
October 6, 2008: Harsh job data last Friday and the continuing clogging of the global financial system are hammering the stock markets worldwide. Read more >
Industrial Market Trends
October 3, 2008: Danielle Hale discusses what is happening in the industrial market. Read more >
Quick Take: October 3, 2008
October 3, 2008: The economy has been producing more, so we may not formally be in a recession. But we are dealing with semantics. Call it what you will, the economy is not sound. Read more >
Quick Take: October 2, 2008
October 2, 2008: Layoffs and work stoppages have increased. The unemployment rate is rising. Read more >
Quick Take: October 1, 2008
October 1, 2008: Until the credit crisis is resolved, the housing market and the economy will not recover. Read more >
Office Market Trends
October 1, 2008: George Ratiu outlines how the current difficult economic conditions are affecting the office market. Read more >
Alternate Forms of Transportation
September 30, 2008: As concerns about gas and oil prices continue, the 'walkability' of cities is gaining attention. Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: September 30, 2008
September 30, 2008: The economy will likely go into a recession without the bailout package. Read more >
Quick Take: September 29, 2008
September 29, 2008: If the $750 billion package does not go through, there could be many unpleasant surprises. Read more >
Quick Take: September 26, 2008
September 26, 2008: Recent developments in financial markets may have a negative impact on GDP until uncertainties and liquidity issues are resolved. Read more >
The Bailout Package: Your Responses
September 26, 2008: We received a lot of feedback on the $700 Billion bailout package. Meredith Dunn responds. Read more >
Quick Take: September 25, 2008
September 25, 2008: New home inventories continue to decline. Read more >
Quick Take: September 24, 2008
September 24, 2008: Lower mortgage rates and lower home prices have significantly improved affordability for buyers. Read more >
Existing Home Sales in August
September 24, 2008: Existing home sales fell modestly in August. Lawrence Yun discusses the latest numbers. Read more >
Quick Take: September 23, 2008
September 23, 2008: In July, home prices were still declining whether one uses the NAR measure or the OFHEO measure. Read more >
Quick Take: September 22, 2008
September 22, 2008: Keep an eye out and be ready for a sharp drop in rates. Read more >
$700 Billion for What?
September 22, 2008: A massive $700 billion government 'bailout' is in the works - Lawrence Yun takes a hard look at what is in store. Read more >
Covered Bonds
September 19, 2008: Jed Smith weighs the pros and cons of using covered bonds versus mortgage backed securities. Read more >
Quick Take: September 19, 2008
September 19, 2008: The Treasury has made a bet with taxpayer funds, which could turn a loss or a profit. Read more >
Quick Take: September 18, 2008
September 18, 2008: The elevated unemployment insurance numbers and declining leading indicator are consistent with the weakness that is felt in the economy. Read more >
Quick Take: September 17, 2008
September 17, 2008: Why was AIG bailed out? What do the new Housing Starts tell us about the market? Read more >
The FOMC Stands Pat
September 16, 2008: This afternoon the FOMC decided not to respond to market expectations of an additional cut on the Federal Funds rate. Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: September 16, 2008
September 16, 2008: There is great stress in the financial market, but mortgage will continue to flow. Read more >
Quick Take: September 15, 2008
September 15, 2008: Lower mortgage rates will help to stimulate sales of real estate. Read more >
Quick Take: September 12, 2008
September 12, 2008: Moderating prices are a welcome development, but the moderation has not yet been strong enough nor the duration long enough to have a big impact. Read more >
Short Sales and Foreclosures: A Brief Overview
September 11, 2008: In April of 2008, NAR conducted an online survey of members on the credit crunch, foreclosures, and short sales. Here are some results. Read more >
Quick Take: September 11, 2008
September 11, 2008: A positive side of recent economic developments is an expected decline in inflation. This will prevent an increase in interest rates. Read more >
The Internet and Pictures: Worth 1,000 Words?
September 10, 2008: 87 percent of first time homebuyers reported using the internet as a resource for finding a home - so taking good MLS pictures is important. Read more >
Quick Take: September 10, 2008
September 10, 2008: Consecutive rises in mortgage applications signals that buyers are returning to the market, possibly at a moderate pace. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in July
September 9, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his insight on the latest Pending Home Sales Index numbers and what they mean. Read more >
Quick Take: September 9, 2008
September 9, 2008: Economic growth could slow, but will continue to expand and not contract. Read more >
Quick Take: September 8, 2008
September 8, 2008: Homebuyers on the sideline should be checking for new mortgage rate quotes and lock in once they become favorable. Read more >
The Government Takes Over Fannie and Freddie
September 8, 2008: The government is taking over Fannie and Freddie - now what? Lawrence Yun offers his insight on what we can expect to see as a result. Read more >
Quick Take: September 5, 2008
September 5, 2008: Job losses point to the fact that the housing market still has a ways to go to begin recovery, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Read more >
Delinquencies Drop; Foreclosures Rise
September 5, 2008: George Ratiu discusses new data released today from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Read more >
Quick Take: September 4, 2008
September 4, 2008: Job gains tend to lag an improvement in the economy; while we're not quite there yet, employment is likely to pick up. Read more >
Quick Take: September 3, 2008
September 3, 2008: Positive economic and housing news is starting to trickle in. Read more >
Quick Take: September 2, 2008
September 2, 2008: The economy is in slightly better shape to continue expanding. Read more >
Quick Take: August 29, 2008
August 29, 2008: Incomes are modestly rising, which is more important to home purchases than a short-term stimulus like tax rebates. Read more >
Quick Take: August 28, 2008
August 28, 2008: Higher than expected economic growth might help with consumer and business confidence. Read more >
Quick Take: August 27, 2008
August 27, 2008: The manufacturing sector is seeing some positive signs, driven by a strong growth in exports. Read more >
Quick Take: August 26, 2008
August 26, 2008: Housing data are moving all over the map, but fluctuating data generally signal early stages of recovery. Read more >
Quick Take: August 25, 2008
August 25, 2008: Some buyers are taking advantage of low housing prices, while the low 10-year Treasury yield will mean lower rates in the short term. Read more >
Existing Home Sales in July
August 25, 2008: Existing home sales rose modestly in July, but showed varying performances regionally. Lawrence Yun explains. Read more >
Growing or Shrinking?
August 21, 2008: How does the IRS track migration? Which states are growing the fastest? Keunwon Chung discusses the details. Read more >
Quick Take: August 21, 2008
August 21, 2008: Continuing soft conditions in the housing and job markets are contributing to a weak economy. Read more >
Quick Take: August 20, 2008
August 20, 2008: Weekly mortgage applications are at their lowest level since December 2000, according to the MBA. Read more >
Housing Supply, Housing Bubbles
August 20, 2008: What goes up must come down - often times at lower price levels than before a bubble, according to a new paper from NBER. Jed Smith explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 19, 2008
August 19, 2008: The Producer Price Index is up and housing starts are down - the FOMC continues to be pulled in different directions by the data. Read more >
Quick Take: August 18, 2008
August 18, 2008: An indicator of sales and expectations for future home building, the Housing Market Index stayed flat for the month of August, at a value of 16. The index is down 27 percent compared with a year ago. Read more >
Trading Up or Down?
August 15, 2008: While most Americans tend to upgrade to larger homes, only 39 percent of recent sellers acquired more expensive homes. Jessica Lautz explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 15, 2008
August 15, 2008: Industrial production increased 0.2 percent and consumer confidence is up slightly, but concerns about the overall economy remain. Read more >
Quick Take: August 14, 2008
August 14, 2008: The Consumer Price Index advanced, but the job situation is still weak. Find out what implications this has for the market. Read more >
Local Market Variations
August 14, 2008: Sharp variations among markets marked the second quarter this year. Lawrence Yun explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 13, 2008
August 13, 2008: The economy is still soft and has some tough times ahead, but the slashing of jobs should moderate and stabilize. Read more >
Quick Take: August 12, 2008
August 12, 2008: Exports rose strongly in June, and the trade deficit narrowed. Find out what effect this will have. Read more >
Quick Take: August 11, 2008
August 11, 2008: The yield on the 10-year Treasury is at 4%. Mortgage rates are expected to rise over the next year. Read more >
Homebuyer Tax Credit
August 8, 2008: The new Homebuyer Tax Credit - what does it mean, how does it work, who is eligible? Find out the details - Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 8, 2008
August 8, 2008: Wholesale trade is up 2.8% and oil prices are at a 3-month low. Find out how this affects Realtors® and consumers. Read more >
The Power of Leverage
August 8, 2008: Investing in stocks, or buying a home - which is the better investment? Paul Bishop discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: August 7, 2008
August 7, 2008: Pending Home Sales are up, as are jobless claims. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in June
August 7, 2008: Pending Home Sales are up 5.3% in June in all four major regions, with the South leading at 9.3 percent. Read more >
Are Homeowners in Denial?
August 6, 2008: The media has declared a housing crisis - so why are some homeowners stating that home values aren't falling? Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: August 6, 2008
August 6, 2008: The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index rose 1.8 percent this week. Find out how this affects REALTORS® and consumers. Read more >
Quick Take: August 5, 2008
August 5, 2008: Oil prices retreat and mortgage rates should remain stable due to the FOMC Meeting announcement. Read more >
Rising China
August 5, 2008: China's economy is growing fast - Lawrence Yun discusses the greater implications this has for Realtors® and the U.S. as a whole. Read more >
Quick Take: August 4, 2008
August 4, 2008: Today's Quick Take discusses personal income and personal consumption, which rose modestly in June. Read more >
Quick Take: August 1, 2008
August 1, 2008: July marks the seventh straight month of job losses, and wage growth remains in check. Find out more, plus the daily forecast update. Read more >
