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Daily Real Estate News  |  November 8, 2006  |   California Dominates List of Risky Housing Markets
Some California home owners may see home prices decline over the next couple of years, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., a Walnut Creek, Calif.–based private mortgage insurer.


PMI produces a quarterly U.S. Market Risk Index based on local economic conditions, income, and interest rates. The statistical model estimates the probability of falling home prices over the next two years.

Eight of the 10 riskiest home markets are in California, according to the analysis. They are:

1. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif., 60.3 percent
2. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif., 60.1 percent
3. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif., 60 percent
4. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif., 59.9 percent
5. Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., 59.8 percent
6. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif., 59.6 percent
7. Boston-Quincy, Mass., 59.6 percent
8. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass., 59 percent
9. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif., 59 percent
10. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., 58.9 percent

The report picks markets in Texas and the Midwest as the 10 least at risk of price declines, with Pittsburgh as the least risky. The least risky markets are:

1. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas, 8.8 percent
2. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn., 8.6 percent
3. San Antonio, Texas, 7.8 percent
4. Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (MSAD), 7.6 percent
5. Columbus, Ohio, 7.4 percent
6. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio, 7.4 percent
7. Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind., 7.2 percent
8. Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark., 6.8 percent
9. Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., 6.3 percent
10. Pittsburgh, 6.1 percent

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