Economist's Commentary: August 1, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 1, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
Employment Report
- Job losses continue with 51,000 fewer people on payrolls in July. This marks seven straight months of job cuts.
- The unemployment figure rose to 5.7 percent from 5.5 percent in the previous month.
- Construction jobs fell by 22,000 during the month. Manufacturing jobs continued their long-term decline with an additional 35,000 job cuts. The professional business service sector also cut jobs. The government and education/health care sectors created jobs.
- The average wage rose by 6 cents to $18.06.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- Job cuts will continue for few more months with the unemployment rate rising through the election.
- Wage growth remains in check thereby suggesting less cost-push inflationary pressure going forward.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8th (48K PDF)
- GDP Q2: 1.9% (actual preliminary)
- GDP Q3: 1.7%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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