Economist's Commentary: August 6, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 6, 2008
By Ken Fears, Manager, Regional Economics
Mortgage Applications - Mortgage Bankers Association
- The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index rose 1.8%, from 309.5 to 315.2 this past week.
- This week's increase ends three weeks of decline in the index. Applications are off their pace from a month ago by 8.1% when mortgage rates were much lower.
What does this mean for Realtors® and consumers?
- This week's reading of applications likely reflects some moderation in mortgage rates, suggesting that tomorrow's figure reported by Freddie Mac will reflect a decline from last week.
- Mortgage rates are back up into territory that resulted in a sizable decline in demand last fall. Sellers will need to continue to be responsive to buyers' needs on price as these rising rates have pushed up monthly payments.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of July 8 (48K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 2.0%
- GDP Q4: 0.4%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.8%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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