Economist's Commentary: August 12, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 12, 2008
By Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist
International Trade
- Exports rose strongly in June, thereby keeping the U.S. economy alive. U.S. exports rose 4 percent while imports rose by 2 percent.
- Imports still outpace exports. But the trade deficit has narrowed to $56.8 billion in June.
- U.S. companies with large exposure to exports are doing quite well financially.
- The weak dollar has help increase exports. Exchange rate changes have a slow impact over the short-term. Therefore, even the past week's modest strengthening in the dollar will not hamper export-oriented business.
- GDP growth rate for the third quarter is raised as a result of export momentum.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- The U.S. economy is expected to grow decently again in the current quarter. Job cuts have continued since the beginning of the year, but the prospect of improving labor market is better.
- Export-oriented companies are doing quite well.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of August 7 (14K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 2.2%
- GDP Q4: 0.5%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.9%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.6%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.7%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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