Economist's Commentary: August 20, 2008
Quick Take on the Economy: August 20, 2008
By Jessica Lautz, Senior Research Analyst
Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Mortgage Applications
- The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index decreased 0.4% to 314.0 from one week earlier.
- The government purchase index (e.g. FHA) rose 0.2%, while the conventional purchase index fell 0.4%.
What does today's data mean for REALTORS® and consumers?
- A slight decrease in mortgage applications is consistent with stable existing home sales of the past few months, though new home sales have been tanking.
- The overall application volume, including that of refinances, is down 61 percent since February of 2008.
Daily Forecast Update
- NAR's monthly official forecast as of August 7th (14.12K PDF)
- GDP Q3: 1.9%
- GDP Q4: 0.4%
- Unemployment rate by election time: 5.9%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in December: 6.5%
- Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate by mid-2009: 6.6%
- The next Fed policy change: a rate hike in December 2008.
This is one in a series of commentaries by the Research staff of the National Association of REALTORS®. Read more commentaries >
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