Research Commentary
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Quick Take: December 1, 2008
December 1: Today's Quick Take looks at the ISM Manufacturing Index and construction spending. Read more >
The Future for Fannie and Freddie
December 1, 2008: How are Fannie and Freddie going to evolve over the coming year? Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: November 27, 2008
November 27: The decline in new home sales was expected given the recent financial crisis that has hit the economy. The new homes market is experiencing similar issues of price and sales declines as seen in the existing homes market reported by NAR. Read more >
Quick Take: November 25, 2008
November 25: Today's Quick Take looks at the Case-Shiller Price Index, the Fed's decision to buy mortgages, and the contracting GDP. Read more >
Quick Take: November 24, 2008
November 24: Today's Quick Take discusses the latest EHS figures as well as President-elect Obama's economic team. Read more >
EHS in October
November 24, 2008: Existing home sales declined 3.1 percent in October to a rate of 4.98 million units from a downwardly revised 5.14 million unit pace in September. Read more >
Inflation Hits Homes
November 21: Arun Barman discusses the return of inflation. Read more >
Quick Take: November 20, 2008
November 20: The slowing economy is swelling the ranks of the unemployed. This slack in the labor market will slow income growth as well. Read more >
Supply vs Demand: Housing Inventory
November 20, 2008: Housing inventory remains high, and until it can be brought down, home prices will continue to come under pressure. Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: November 19, 2008
November 19, 2008: While it can be discussed as a negative, falling residential construction is definitely a positive for Realtors® and the economy given the current surplus. Read more >
Quick Take: November 18, 2008
November 18: A few months ago inflation was a big concern for economists and policy makers. Now deflation is the new worry, and may lead to further interest rate cuts. Read more >
Quick Take: November 17, 2008
November 17, 2008: An incentive from the federal government and other lending institutions may encourage potential home buyers to take advantage of low prices and invest in housing. Read more >
Movers in the U.S.
November 17, 2008: Danielle Hale discusses the primary reasons why people in the U.S. move. Read more >
When is the Best Time to Purchase a Home?
November 14: Harika "Anna" Barlett provides some insights on timing the home purchase from the NAR 2008 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Read more >
Quick Take: November 14, 2008
November 14, 2008: The sharp contraction in retail sales points to a serious decline in consumer confidence. Read more >
Quick Take: November 13, 2008
November 13, 2008: If rates remain lower they will reduce the size of increases in resetting rates for some homeowners with ARMS. Read more >
Quick Take: November 12, 2008
November 12, 2008: The $700 billion plan to purchase troubled mortgages off banks' books is being shelved - because of the long-time involvement to implement it effectively. Read more >
Quick Take: November 11, 2008
November 11, 2008: With increased sensitivity to the troubles in the housing market, more and more financial institutions are investing resources towards stemming foreclosures. Read more >
Quick Take: November 10, 2008
November 10, 2008: Oil prices continue to remain low at $60 per barrel due to the weak world economy and from stronger U.S. dollar. Read more >
Quick Take: November 7, 2008
November 7, 2008: For many, this is a golden opportunity to buy. There are many favorable conditions in the making. Read more >
Quick Take: November 6, 2008
November 6: Even under current struggling economic condition, the productivity growth of the quarter remained positive. Read more >
Quick Take: November 5, 2008
November 5: With the President and the makeup of Congress determined, one of the major uncertainties that lingered over the country's economic climate has been removed. Read more >
Understanding the Movers' Market
November 5: Although fewer people are moving, a greater share of movers are buying homes. Arun Barman explains. Read more >
Quick Take: November 4, 2008
November 4, 2008: The sharp decline in new factory order and shipments in the last couple of months reflects persistent weakness in the economy. Read more >
Quick Take: November 3, 2008
November 3: Potential home buyers will have less stomach for a big purchase in this uncertain environment, but mortgage rates are likely to remain historically low for those who are willing to venture into the market. Read more >
Quick Take: October 31, 2008
October 31: The economy can be revived if homebuyers are given the incentive to buy a home and the mortgage interest buy-down will do that. Read more >
A Rare Commodity: Financing
October 31: A new problem has emerged: only those with superior credit and the ability to put down a substantial down payment can get financing at any rate. Ken Fears discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: October 30, 2008
October 30: Housing has the power to take the economy out of a recession. A speedy solution to lowering foreclosure rates and improving buyer confidence will prevent a deep recession. Read more >
Quick Take, October 29, 2008
October 29: Mortgage rates fell towards the end of last week, likely drawing in some demand for new purchases. Read more >
Quick Take, October 28, 2008
October 28, 2008: With consumer expectations at all-time lows, perhaps a bottom is not far away. Read more >
Tumbling Off of the Trade-Up Tightrope
October 27: Ken Fears discusses vacancies and the difficulties some trade-up buyers are now facing. Read more >
Quick Take, October 27, 2008
October 27, 2008: New home inventories continue to decline, a move in the right direction for the housing market. Read more >
Quick Take, October 24, 2008
October 24: Homebuyers are returning to many markets. It is still a buyer's market, but will it be the case one year from now? Read more >
Existing Home Sales in September
October 24, 2008: Existing home sales increased 5.5 percent in September to 5.18 million units (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) from 4.91 million units in August. Read more >
Quick Take, October 23, 2008
October 23: For those who are not timid, affordability is high due to reduced prices and lower mortgage rates. Read more >
Microcosm Michigan
October 23, 2008: Though improbable, a deep prolonged national recession may lead to a business cycle like the one Michigan is experiencing. Manisha Singh explains. Read more >
Quick Take: October 22, 2008
October 22: Mortgage rates continue to fluctuate wildly as buyers of debt re-evaluate their new options. Read more >
Quick Take: October 21, 2008
October 21: Homebuyers are getting tremendous incentives. A strengthening in home prices is just around the corner. Read more >
Quick Take: October 20, 2008
October 20: Once home prices settle, the valuation of mortgage-backed-securities will settle. In other words, helping the housing sector will help stabilize Wall Street. Read more >
The Credit Crunch and the Pain of Deleveraging
October 20, 2008: Credit isn't flowing because banks are holding on to whatever cash they have. Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: October 17, 2008
October 17: The sharp decline in construction is a healthy move for the overall housing market - it means that there will be a further reduction of the supply of new homes. Read more >
Quick Take: October 16, 2008
October 16: Mortgage Rates, Unemployment Insurance Claims, Industrial Production, the NAHB's Housing Market Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are all discussed in today's quick take. Read more >
Quick Take: October 15, 2008
October 15: Over the year, expect continued weakness in conventional mortgage applications and more government mortgage applications. Read more >
Quick Take: October 14, 2008
October 14: The economy will avert a deep recession. The short-term momentum still suggests weak consumer spending which will hold back the economy. Read more >
Quick Take: October 13, 2008
October 13: Mortgage rates are no longer at rock-bottom rates, but still favorable. Read more >
2009 Economic Outlook
October 13, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his economic forecast for 2009. Read more >
Quick Take: October 10, 2008
October 10: Consumers are putting off their car purchases. However, this doesn't necessarily mean they may wait for their home purchases. Read more >
Quick Take: October 9, 2008
October 9: Penny-pinching consumers will cause the overall economy to contract at least through the first quarter of 2009. Read more >
Multi-Family Market Trends
October 9, 2008: George Ratiu discusses the good news in the multi-family market trends. Read more >
Retail Market Trends
October 8, 2008: George Ratiu outlines how consumer spending is affecting the retail market. Read more >
Quick Take: October 8, 2008
October 8: A global economic recession is here. But the depth of the downfall will depend on when and how the U.S. housing market recovers. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in August
October 8, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his insight on the latest Pending Home Sales Index numbers and what they mean. Read more >
Quick Take: October 7, 2008
October 7: Downward pressure is being placed on mortgage rates. A buyer with great credit and money to put down could snatch up a fantastic opportunity on financing. Read more >
Quick Take: October 6, 2008
October 6, 2008: Harsh job data last Friday and the continuing clogging of the global financial system are hammering the stock markets worldwide. Read more >
Industrial Market Trends
October 3, 2008: Danielle Hale discusses what is happening in the industrial market. Read more >
Quick Take: October 3, 2008
October 3, 2008: The economy has been producing more, so we may not formally be in a recession. But we are dealing with semantics. Call it what you will, the economy is not sound. Read more >
Quick Take: October 2, 2008
October 2, 2008: Layoffs and work stoppages have increased. The unemployment rate is rising. Read more >
Quick Take: October 1, 2008
October 1, 2008: Until the credit crisis is resolved, the housing market and the economy will not recover. Read more >
Office Market Trends
October 1, 2008: George Ratiu outlines how the current difficult economic conditions are affecting the office market. Read more >
Alternate Forms of Transportation
September 30, 2008: As concerns about gas and oil prices continue, the 'walkability' of cities is gaining attention. Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: September 30, 2008
September 30, 2008: The economy will likely go into a recession without the bailout package. Read more >
Quick Take: September 29, 2008
September 29, 2008: If the $750 billion package does not go through, there could be many unpleasant surprises. Read more >
Quick Take: September 26, 2008
September 26, 2008: Recent developments in financial markets may have a negative impact on GDP until uncertainties and liquidity issues are resolved. Read more >
The Bailout Package: Your Responses
September 26, 2008: We received a lot of feedback on the $700 Billion bailout package. Meredith Dunn responds. Read more >
Quick Take: September 25, 2008
September 25, 2008: New home inventories continue to decline. Read more >
Quick Take: September 24, 2008
September 24, 2008: Lower mortgage rates and lower home prices have significantly improved affordability for buyers. Read more >
Existing Home Sales in August
September 24, 2008: Existing home sales fell modestly in August. Lawrence Yun discusses the latest numbers. Read more >
Quick Take: September 23, 2008
September 23, 2008: In July, home prices were still declining whether one uses the NAR measure or the OFHEO measure. Read more >
Quick Take: September 22, 2008
September 22, 2008: Keep an eye out and be ready for a sharp drop in rates. Read more >
$700 Billion for What?
September 22, 2008: A massive $700 billion government 'bailout' is in the works - Lawrence Yun takes a hard look at what is in store. Read more >
Covered Bonds
September 19, 2008: Jed Smith weighs the pros and cons of using covered bonds versus mortgage backed securities. Read more >
Quick Take: September 19, 2008
September 19, 2008: The Treasury has made a bet with taxpayer funds, which could turn a loss or a profit. Read more >
Quick Take: September 18, 2008
September 18, 2008: The elevated unemployment insurance numbers and declining leading indicator are consistent with the weakness that is felt in the economy. Read more >
Quick Take: September 17, 2008
September 17, 2008: Why was AIG bailed out? What do the new Housing Starts tell us about the market? Read more >
The FOMC Stands Pat
September 16, 2008: This afternoon the FOMC decided not to respond to market expectations of an additional cut on the Federal Funds rate. Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: September 16, 2008
September 16, 2008: There is great stress in the financial market, but mortgage will continue to flow. Read more >
Quick Take: September 15, 2008
September 15, 2008: Lower mortgage rates will help to stimulate sales of real estate. Read more >
Quick Take: September 12, 2008
September 12, 2008: Moderating prices are a welcome development, but the moderation has not yet been strong enough nor the duration long enough to have a big impact. Read more >
Short Sales and Foreclosures: A Brief Overview
September 11, 2008: In April of 2008, NAR conducted an online survey of members on the credit crunch, foreclosures, and short sales. Here are some results. Read more >
Quick Take: September 11, 2008
September 11, 2008: A positive side of recent economic developments is an expected decline in inflation. This will prevent an increase in interest rates. Read more >
The Internet and Pictures: Worth 1,000 Words?
September 10, 2008: 87 percent of first time homebuyers reported using the internet as a resource for finding a home - so taking good MLS pictures is important. Read more >
Quick Take: September 10, 2008
September 10, 2008: Consecutive rises in mortgage applications signals that buyers are returning to the market, possibly at a moderate pace. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in July
September 9, 2008: Lawrence Yun gives his insight on the latest Pending Home Sales Index numbers and what they mean. Read more >
Quick Take: September 9, 2008
September 9, 2008: Economic growth could slow, but will continue to expand and not contract. Read more >
Quick Take: September 8, 2008
September 8, 2008: Homebuyers on the sideline should be checking for new mortgage rate quotes and lock in once they become favorable. Read more >
The Government Takes Over Fannie and Freddie
September 8, 2008: The government is taking over Fannie and Freddie - now what? Lawrence Yun offers his insight on what we can expect to see as a result. Read more >
Quick Take: September 5, 2008
September 5, 2008: Job losses point to the fact that the housing market still has a ways to go to begin recovery, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. Read more >
Delinquencies Drop; Foreclosures Rise
September 5, 2008: George Ratiu discusses new data released today from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Read more >
Quick Take: September 4, 2008
September 4, 2008: Job gains tend to lag an improvement in the economy; while we're not quite there yet, employment is likely to pick up. Read more >
Quick Take: September 3, 2008
September 3, 2008: Positive economic and housing news is starting to trickle in. Read more >
Quick Take: September 2, 2008
September 2, 2008: The economy is in slightly better shape to continue expanding. Read more >
Quick Take: August 29, 2008
August 29, 2008: Incomes are modestly rising, which is more important to home purchases than a short-term stimulus like tax rebates. Read more >
Quick Take: August 28, 2008
August 28, 2008: Higher than expected economic growth might help with consumer and business confidence. Read more >
Quick Take: August 27, 2008
August 27, 2008: The manufacturing sector is seeing some positive signs, driven by a strong growth in exports. Read more >
Quick Take: August 26, 2008
August 26, 2008: Housing data are moving all over the map, but fluctuating data generally signal early stages of recovery. Read more >
Quick Take: August 25, 2008
August 25, 2008: Some buyers are taking advantage of low housing prices, while the low 10-year Treasury yield will mean lower rates in the short term. Read more >
Existing Home Sales in July
August 25, 2008: Existing home sales rose modestly in July, but showed varying performances regionally. Lawrence Yun explains. Read more >
Growing or Shrinking?
August 21, 2008: How does the IRS track migration? Which states are growing the fastest? Keunwon Chung discusses the details. Read more >
Quick Take: August 21, 2008
August 21, 2008: Continuing soft conditions in the housing and job markets are contributing to a weak economy. Read more >
Quick Take: August 20, 2008
August 20, 2008: Weekly mortgage applications are at their lowest level since December 2000, according to the MBA. Read more >
Housing Supply, Housing Bubbles
August 20, 2008: What goes up must come down - often times at lower price levels than before a bubble, according to a new paper from NBER. Jed Smith explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 19, 2008
August 19, 2008: The Producer Price Index is up and housing starts are down - the FOMC continues to be pulled in different directions by the data. Read more >
Quick Take: August 18, 2008
August 18, 2008: An indicator of sales and expectations for future home building, the Housing Market Index stayed flat for the month of August, at a value of 16. The index is down 27 percent compared with a year ago. Read more >
Trading Up or Down?
August 15, 2008: While most Americans tend to upgrade to larger homes, only 39 percent of recent sellers acquired more expensive homes. Jessica Lautz explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 15, 2008
August 15, 2008: Industrial production increased 0.2 percent and consumer confidence is up slightly, but concerns about the overall economy remain. Read more >
Quick Take: August 14, 2008
August 14, 2008: The Consumer Price Index advanced, but the job situation is still weak. Find out what implications this has for the market. Read more >
Local Market Variations
August 14, 2008: Sharp variations among markets marked the second quarter this year. Lawrence Yun explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 13, 2008
August 13, 2008: The economy is still soft and has some tough times ahead, but the slashing of jobs should moderate and stabilize. Read more >
Quick Take: August 12, 2008
August 12, 2008: Exports rose strongly in June, and the trade deficit narrowed. Find out what effect this will have. Read more >
Quick Take: August 11, 2008
August 11, 2008: The yield on the 10-year Treasury is at 4%. Mortgage rates are expected to rise over the next year. Read more >
Homebuyer Tax Credit
August 8, 2008: The new Homebuyer Tax Credit - what does it mean, how does it work, who is eligible? Find out the details - Danielle Hale explains. Read more >
Quick Take: August 8, 2008
August 8, 2008: Wholesale trade is up 2.8% and oil prices are at a 3-month low. Find out how this affects Realtors® and consumers. Read more >
The Power of Leverage
August 8, 2008: Investing in stocks, or buying a home - which is the better investment? Paul Bishop discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: August 7, 2008
August 7, 2008: Pending Home Sales are up, as are jobless claims. Read more >
Pending Home Sales in June
August 7, 2008: Pending Home Sales are up 5.3% in June in all four major regions, with the South leading at 9.3 percent. Read more >
Are Homeowners in Denial?
August 6, 2008: The media has declared a housing crisis - so why are some homeowners stating that home values aren't falling? Lawrence Yun discusses. Read more >
Quick Take: August 6, 2008
August 6, 2008: The purchase portion of the mortgage applications index rose 1.8 percent this week. Find out how this affects REALTORS® and consumers. Read more >
Quick Take: August 5, 2008
August 5, 2008: Oil prices retreat and mortgage rates should remain stable due to the FOMC Meeting announcement. Read more >
Rising China
August 5, 2008: China's economy is growing fast - Lawrence Yun discusses the greater implications this has for Realtors® and the U.S. as a whole. Read more >
Quick Take: August 4, 2008
August 4, 2008: Today's Quick Take discusses personal income and personal consumption, which rose modestly in June. Read more >
Quick Take: August 1, 2008
August 1, 2008: July marks the seventh straight month of job losses, and wage growth remains in check. Find out more, plus the daily forecast update. Read more >
